Election that defied ALL logic
STEPHEN Fisher, a professor in political sociology at Oxford University, examines the conflicting allegiances that led to a hung Parliament:
WHY DID LONDON REMAINERS VOTE LABOUR?
Sixty per cent of the capital’s electorate backed Remain. Remainers in London warmed to Jeremy Corbyn’s message because he promised a softer Brexit compared with the Conservatives’ tough stance.
In particular, he pledged an immediate guarantee of full rights to all EU citizens here, while he also refused to set any target for mass immigration.
Both these measures had a strong appeal in a city where a third of the population is foreign-born and which last year elected Britain’s first Muslim mayor, Sadiq Khan.
London’s results were also part of a wider pattern in which constituencies with the highest Remain vote saw a 7 per cent swing to Labour.
BUT WHY DID SO MANY UKIP VOTERS BACK LABOUR, TOO?
There are several possible reasons. Many Ukip voters are traditional Labour supporters, who may have liked its policy of less austerity and more spending on the NHS.
The Labour manifesto also promised explicitly to implement Brexit. Though vague on the terms, this may have been enough for many Ukip voters.
Above all, Ukip voters tend to be over 55 so they are likely to have been alienated by the Conservatives’ policy on social care – the so-called ‘Dementia Tax’ – and the withdrawal of winter fuel allowances.
WHY DIDN’T THE MIDDLE CLASSES STAY BLUE?
Labour largely retained the support of its English and Welsh heartlands, but also appears to have extended its support among educated professionals. There were probably two forces at work.
One was the dislike of Brexit: more educated, affluent voters overwhelmingly tended to back Remain in last year’s EU referendum and therefore disliked Mrs May’s policy. The other was Labour’s promises of support for the public sector workforce, through new funding and the removal of pay caps.
WHY COULDN’T THERESA MAY ‘DO A THATCHER’?
At the start of Mrs May’s campaign, many pundits thought this would be a re-run of the 1983 contest, in which a strong female Conservative leader, Margaret Thatcher, trounced a dishevelled Left-winger, Michael Foot.
But the circumstances could hardly have been more different. Mrs Thatcher had already been in office four years and had earned a reputation for toughness through victory in the Falklands. Less than a year into her premiership, Mrs May’s image of strength melted in the fire of the campaign.
Above all, Mr Corbyn turned out to be a much better campaigner than the shambolic Mr Foot, whereas May was just a shadow of Margaret Thatcher.