A SOFT BREXIT MEANS NO BREXIT
Since last Thursday’s electoral earthquake, a myth has sprouted — embraced by eurocrats in Brussels, pro-Remain politicians and the BBC — that the result amounts to a vote against a so- called hard Brexit.
There’s no proof of this. Both Tories and Labour undertook to withdraw Britain from the EU single market. Staying inside the market is the essence of a ‘soft Brexit’.
Unfortunately, the notion that the outcome of the election should be partly seen as anti-Brexit seems to be shared by the chancellor, Philip Hammond. He is alleged by his German counterpart, Wolfgang Schauble, to have said over the weekend that the young who voted for Jeremy corbyn did so largely out of distaste for Brexit.
Of course, some people may have voted Labour for this reason — but there’s no evidence they did so in significant numbers. in any case, the election wasn’t really about Brexit: it turned out to be about social care, policing cuts, the winter fuel allowance and continuing austerity.
The two anti-Brexit parties fared poorly. The Lib Dem share of the vote declined slightly, while the equally fanatically PRO-EU Scottish nationalists lost 21 of their 56 seats.
So although pro-Remain politicians and BBC presenters will doubtless go on repeating the canard that the electorate has rejected a hard Brexit (whatever that precisely entails), they haven’t any facts to support their case.
For all that, i’m afraid the outcome could make a soft Brexit more likely. This is because the political arithmetic no longer favours the kind of withdrawal that Theresa May outlined before the election, though unfortunately scarcely talked about during the campaign.
Ruth Davidson, the redoubtable Scottish Tory leader, has indicated she doesn’t want a hard Brexit, and the 12 new Scottish conservative MPs are expected to follow her lead. Another dozen or so english Tory MPs are committed to the softest Brexit imaginable. Mrs May is between a rock and a hard place.
MOREOVER, although Labour is officially in favour of pulling out of the single market — a policy reiterated by Shadow chancellor John McDonnell as recently as Sunday — my bet is that it will increasingly lean towards a softer Brexit to embarrass and undermine Mrs May. The danger is that our embattled Prime Minister will be pushed towards a soft Brexit by irrepressible Remainers in her own party such as her predecessor David cameron, who reprehensively spoke yesterday of ‘pressure for a softer Brexit’, and Labour mischief-making. Some unidentified cabinet members are even said to be in secret talks with Labour MPs to secure cross-party backing for a soft Brexit. Mrs May is under enormous pressure. Rather than buckle, though, she should do what she failed to do during the election: argue the case in public against a soft Brexit. She should also encourage intransigent Remainers in her party to spell out what they really want. For the truth is that the soft Brexit, with which the likes of Mr Hammond flirt, is no Brexit at all. if it involves us staying in the single market, we would have no control over our borders. That’s the predicament of norway and tiny iceland and Liechtenstein, which are part of the so- called european economic Area. These countries can’t regulate the influx of workers from the EU.
They also pay into the EU budget in return for membership of the single market. norway’s fee is estimated to be about 90 per cent of the United Kingdom’s per person. Our annual net contribution to Brussels — about £13 billion — would be barely reduced.
Worst of all, with a norway-type solution we would have to accept new EU laws without having any influence over them.
The desire to regain control of our borders, and recover our sovereignty, were the two mainsprings of the pro- Leave vote. Both would be sacrificed if Britain were to remain in the single market.
it would be preferable to stay in the EU rather than accept this kind of soft Brexit. As members of the EU, we at least have a say in the laws that affect the single market. As part of the european economic Area, we would have to submit impotently to whatever was foisted on us by Brussels.
Why don’t the proponents of a soft Brexit ever say this? Because it so obviously runs counter to the aspirations of the vast majority of people who voted Leave and, i dare say, of many who didn’t but have come around to the idea of Brexit.
There is perhaps one respectable argument for joining the european economic Area — which is that as we would not be part of the EU’s customs union, we would have time to build up trading arrangements with NON-EU countries while trading tariff-free with the EU.
But does anyone seriously think that once we had achieved this unsatisfactory halfway house, in which we would still be answerable to Brussels, we would ever escape to become a truly independent and self-governing country?
Let’s put Ruth Davidson and Anna Soubry and the other Tories who publicly advocate a soft Brexit on the spot — and those like Philip Hammond who do so in private — and encourage them to face up to the logic of their position.
THE truth is that the term ‘soft Brexit’ is endlessly and lazily repeated without it ever being properly examined. As soon as it is, it disintegrates into dust. Theresa May should call the bluff of these myopic Tory Remainers.
Don’t they realise their antics give comfort to Michel Barnier and Jeanclaude Juncker in Brussels? Mrs May has been weakened by losing her overall majority. Barnier even had the gall yesterday to tell the British Government to hurry up. How overjoyed the eurocrats will be if they see her under attack by her own party.
And then what? A Tory split can only have one outcome — which is Jeremy corbyn and his hard-Left clique ruling this country. We came far too close for comfort last week. it wouldn’t take much to put this unsavoury extremist in no 10.
A soft Brexit is no Brexit. it’s not an option for this country. it certainly isn’t worth splitting the Tory Party by fighting over it, and giving cheer to EU negotiators in Brussels.
And despite what Mr Hammond and others may claim, despite all the disappointments of last Thursday, there isn’t a shred of evidence that the British people have changed their minds about wanting Brexit.