Middle class hardest hit as life expectancy rises ‘grind to a halt’
LIFE expectancy improvements are ‘grinding to a halt’ because of our ailing NHS and social care system, experts warn today.
The middle classes are predicted to be hardest hit by the phenomenon as they struggle to afford rising care bills in old age.
Researchers also blame the toll of dementia for the sudden stagnation of increases in life expectancy.
A team of academics from University College London have found that since 2010, historical increases in life expectancy have dramatically stalled.
Before then, average life expectancy at birth in the UK for women was going up by one year every five years. For men – who have lower life expectancies – it was increasing at a faster pace of an extra one year every three and a half years.
Since 2010, the women’s rate is increasing by one year every ten years. For men, average life expectancy is going up by an extra year every six years.
The research was led by Professor Sir Michael Marmot – a global expert in the field of health inequalities – who predicted life expectancies could soon start to decline.
According to Office for National Statistics predictions analysed by UCL, a girl born between 2013 and 2015 can expect to live for 80.3 years. A boy born in the same period will live for an average of 75.6 years. These estimates are based on complicated calculations which take into account current death rates among the elderly and overall standards of living.
Professor Marmot said the recent increases in life expectancy were ‘ pretty close to having ground to a halt’. He blamed the ‘miserly’ funding of the NHS and social care systems which has left them unable to meet the needs of the ageing population.
He also highlighted that the leading cause of death among the very old was dementia and Alzheimer’s. He said: ‘Dementia on the death certificate is the tip of the iceberg. If people are dying of dementia that means there is a lot of people living with dementia.’
Dementia could have played an ‘important part’ in the stagnation in increases in life expectancy, Professor Marmot added.
Other factors involve patients being denied the latest cancer drugs, waiting times for routine operations on the rise and thousands facing lengthy delays for ambulances or in A&E. Social care services are said to be on the brink of collapse and severely ill elderly patients are being refused council-funded home visits.
Professor Marmot and his team from UCL’s Institute of Health Equity said the middle class would be most affected by the stagnation. Unlike the wealthiest households, they will be unable to pay for their own social care or private healthcare.
Poorer adults, meanwhile, tend to die before reaching their late 70s or 80s which is when the deficiencies in NHS and social care provision have the greatest effect.
Professor Marmot said: ‘I am deeply concerned with the levelling off, I expected it to just keep getting better. I would say it is a matter of urgency to try and examine why this has happened.
‘I am deeply concerned that if we do not fund health care and social care adequately people will lead much worse lives.
‘If we don’t spend appropriately on social care, if we don’t spend appropriately on health care, then certainly the quality of life will get worse for older people and maybe the length of life too.’
A Department of Health spokesman said: ‘Just last week, the NHS was rated the No 1 health service in the world. Life expectancy continues to increase.
‘We continue to invest to ensure our ageing population is well cared for, with £6billion extra going into the NHS over the last two years and an additional £2billion for the social care system.’