A decade of record downpours on way

Supercomputer’s extreme weather prediction

ENGLAND will have extreme rainfall during one in three winters for the next decade, the Met Office warned yesterday.

The alarming forecast, which predicts an unprecedented level of flooding, has been made using a new method of predicting weather using a supercomputer.

The analysis found that there is a 33 per cent chance of record rainfall happening in at least one region of England and Wales every winter.

Previously, forecasters based their predictions of risk on weather that has been recorded in the past.

However, the problem with this older method is that it is restricted to about 100 years of data – and does not take into account the full range of possibilities.

But now, by using a Cray XC40 supercomputer, they were able to simulate thousands of future winters – including ones with extreme rain.

Lead Met Office researcher Dr Vikki Thompson said: ‘Our analysis showed that these [extreme rain events] could happen at any time and it’s likely we will see record monthly rainfall in one of our regions in the next few years.’ The forecast may mean that winters like the one experienced in the winter of 2013-2014, when many regions were hit by devastating floods, will become the norm.

In January 2014, 30 per cent more rain fell than was ever experienced before in the previous 100 years.

And the experts’ predictions may already be coming true – as last week the Cornish village of Coverack was wrecked by more than two weeks’ rain falling in a single night.

The study, published in the journal Nature Communications, is based on the current climate and looks at weather patterns over the next ten years. It does not take into account predictions of increasing global warming.

The experts found that of the six regions of England and Wales studied, the four most low-lying – south- east England, the Midlands, East Anglia and north-east England – were at a high risk of extreme rainfall.

Professor Piers Forster, of the Priestley International Centre for Climate at the University of Leeds, explained: ‘Although this year has been particularly dry, generally our winters are getting wetter and the rainfall heavier, so we are seeing more flooding and records broken.

‘We expect the odds to shorten on future rainfall extremes, but the first stage to predict this is knowing the current odds – and this is what this new paper gives us.

‘Their results will help guide planners, in knowing how high to build flood defences.’

However, Professor Richard Allan, of the Department of Meteorology at the University of Reading, warned that factoring in global warming will make the severe weather predictions even worse.

He said: ‘As the planet continues to warm due to human-caused greenhouse gas emissions, extra moisture in the air will fuel increasingly intense rainfall causing a continued rise in the risk of damaging events into the future.’

‘Could happen at any time’