Winter flu chaos alert

Fears vaccine won’t work on severe strain

HOSPITALS are frantically trying to discharge patients amid fears the NHS is set to face a severe flu outbreak.

Simon Stevens, the head of the NHS, said that the virus had already caused chaos in Australia with some A&E units having standing room only.

Hospitals in the UK are bracing for the arrival of the h3n2 strain of flu, which has been particularly severe in the elderly and children.

They are being urged to discharge as many bedblocking patients as possible over the next six to eight weeks.

There are also concerns that the flu vaccine will prove to be ineffective as it will not match this strain.

Australia, whose winter occurs during our summer, has just experienced one of its worst flu outbreaks on record with more than 100,000 cases – two and a half times the usual number.

Hospitals have been overwhelmed and ambulance services in some areas have been told to attend only the most urgent cases.

The flu season in Britain and the rest of the northern hemisphere tends to mirror what has happened in Australia and the southern hemisphere, as the same strains circulate north. But the vaccines, which are made in March, are based on which strains scientists at the World Health Organization expect to be in circulation.

Some health experts in Australia have blamed the outbreak on the vaccine not matching. The vaccine used in the UK will be very similar. Addressing the Health and Care Innovation Expo conference in Manchester yesterday, Mr Stevens said: ‘The signs from the southern hemisphere winter have been that flu has been much higher and it has been the variety that puts the most pressure on the old people’s services like care homes.

‘If that reproduces itself here over this coming winter, that is going to mean much more pressure on GP services and hospitals. That simply reinforces the work that the NHS is doing to open extra beds and ensure that a full range of out-of-hospital services, such as home care and care homes are ready.

‘But in some parts of the country, clearly there are real pressures, so we are using the next six to eight weeks to really be clear what the plan there needs to be.

‘ The evidence is we are likely to have a more pressurised flu season this year.’

He said hospitals were preparing to free up an extra 2,000 to 3,000 beds, by discharging so-called bedblocking patients.

Bedblockers are patients who are medically fit to be discharged but remain in hospital as care has not been set up for them at home.

The flu season typically begins in November and lasts until March, peaking in December or January. Over the next few weeks GPs will start giving the vaccine to over-65s, children aged two to four, pregnant women and other at-risk groups.

In 2015 health officials admitted that the flu vaccine given to millions of patients the previous winter had been ineffective.

Public Health England (PHE) found that it worked in just 3 per cent of cases, although this was revised up to 30 per cent of cases.

Normally flu vaccines are effective in two thirds of cases so this was still far below average.

Chris Hopson, head of NHS Providers, which represents hospitals, said: ‘The unprecedented demand last winter meant the NHS was stretched up to – and in some places beyond – its limits.

‘Any indication that this year’s strain will be more prevalent and the vaccination less effective is very worrying. We need to ensure the NHS is equipped to provide safe care in the challenging months ahead.’

‘Pressure on hospitals’