Root needs BIG hundreds to inspire his men Starc’s the best and can blow England away
WITH the first Ashes Test starting at midnight on Wednesday at the Gabba, Sportsmail’s team of experts make their predictions for what promises to be a fascinating series — and all agree that Joe Root has his work cut out to guide England to victory over Australia in the absence of Ben Stokes...
ENGLAND HAVE BEEN WRITTEN OFF — IS IT ALL DOOM AND GLOOM?
LLOYD: It’s a snorefest! I’ve heard it that many times: we’re great, you’re not. The only thing we’ve not been told is that it’s the worst England team ever to visit Australia. Joe Root’s been brilliant. You keep talking, he says, and we’ll do the playing.
McGRATH: I’ve always been happy to write them off and I’ve made my usual Ashes prediction. If they get off to a shocker in Brisbane their problems could escalate and a lot will depend on Mitchell Starc. If he swings the new ball it could be very tough for England.
BOOTH: Gloom, yes. Doom? Possibly. Australia have weaknesses. It’s just England’s weaknesses are more glaring. They have only won in Australia in exceptional circumstances, and this series does not look like ticking that box.
HUSSAIN: No. Everything I’ve heard is part and parcel of a regulation Ashes build-up. There is no denying the absence of Ben Stokes is a huge setback but the team are greater than any individual.
NEWMAN: I’ve been Mr Miserable about England’s hopes all along but then Australia’s selectors come up with the most muddled and frankly baffling first Test squad. Might there just be a glimmer of hope now?
WHERE WILL ENGLAND’S RUNS COME FROM?
HUSSAIN: The batsmen cannot keep getting out between 50 and 100 and the example has to come from the captain. The biggest thing Root can bring to his team is big hundreds to show the way. Then he can say: ‘If I can do it, so can you.’
NEWMAN: They can all score half-centuries in Test cricket but how many have the patience and application for big centuries? It’s got to be you, Joe, and you too Alastair, but I’ve got a hunch Dawid Malan will have a good series.
BOOTH: Root looks the only gimme, with Jonny Bairstow not far behind. Then there’s the curious case of Alastair Cook. His six Ashes series have produced one great performance, in 2010-11, and five that were middling-to-bad. Moeen Ali is going to have to play a blinder.
McGRATH: Root will have to score the bulk of them. Cook is experienced and Bairstow isn’t bad but the captain must lead by example.
LLOYD: People keep saying England only have two batsmen — Cook and Root. But don’t forget Jonny Bairstow and Ali. And with Chris Woakes down the order, England bat deep. But I’ve also got a suspicion that one of James Vince or Malan will enjoy the straightforward Australian pitches.
WON’T AUSTRALIA’S PACE ATTACK BLOW US AWAY?
McGRATH: It’s got the potential to. Starc is the best bowler in the world at his best and can blow away any team. If so, happy days!
LLOYD: It depends if they’re in hospital or not. They always seem to be injured. Fast bowlers can be fragile — the physios of both teams will have an important role to play. It wouldn’t surprise me if we see that old Aussie warhorse Peter Siddle before the series is over.
NEWMAN: If their big three stay fit and firing then yes. But they have already lost James Pattinson and Pat Cummins has been fragile. England’s best hope is that Cummins and Starc won’t last the distance.
BOOTH: Conceivably. Starc is in the form of his life, Josh Hazlewood is the closest thing to Glenn McGrath, and Cummins is seriously quick. Whether all three make it through the series is another matter.
HUSSAIN: Yes. Australia have a very good attack but I can’t agree with Ryan Harris that it is better than the one which whitewashed England. And it certainly isn’t as good as the one led by Glenn McGrath and Shane Warne. There’s nothing to be feared.
WHO WILL WIN THE CAPTAINCY BATTLE?
BOOTH: The glib answer is: whoever has the better bowlers. And that’s Steve Smith. Root may have to take a risk, as he did against West Indies at Headingley, because England will not get many chances, but I think he has a better cricket brain than Smith.
HUSSAIN: They are fine players, but the jury is out on both as captains. Smith has more experience, especially in Australia, and the bigger challenge is for Root. But he’s a quick learner, as he showed with his improvement in his use of DRS.
LLOYD: It will be about seizing the moment. Who’s got the bottle and the flair? It’s going to be about reacting to the slightest chance, because I don’t think there will be many draws.
NEWMAN: It’s asking a lot of Root to win in Australia in his first tour in charge. Smith has the edge as long as he has Starc, Cummins and Hazlewood at his disposal.
McGRATH: They’re both quality batsmen and decent captains. But I will put Smith in front just because I’m an Aussie!
WHO WILL BE THE STAR OF THIS SERIES?
NEWMAN: Please don’t let it be David Warner. I don’t think I could take that. It was a Mitchell last time, Johnson, and it will probably be a Mitchell this time, Starc.
BOOTH: Starc. He’s just taken two hat-tricks in one game, and he looks determined to continue the tradition of England being spooked by left-armers named Mitchell. But while Johnson liked the bouncer, Starc loves the yorker. McGRATH: If Starc is the star of the series then Australia will win comfortably. But the pitches won’t suit the bowlers so it could easily be a batsman. Take your pick from Warner, Smith or Root. HUSSAIN: The one person I would want out more than anyone if I were England captain is Warner. He could take any game away from you very quickly. If he has a good series that will go a long way
towards winning the Ashes for Australia. LLOYD: You’d expect the big names to do well — Cook, Root, Warner, Smith — but I wouldn’t be surprised if one of the lesser batsmen makes a name for himself: Usman Khawaja, possibly, or Vince, who has a lot to prove.
A TOUR TOO FAR FOR JIMMY ANDERSON?
McGRATH: He’s just come off a very good summer and I’ll be fascinated to see how he goes. Now is the time for him to do it in Australia. LLOYD: Definitely not. He’s got a big role to play as leader of the attack. There are no problems with his fitness and his pace is consistent. But he’ll need all his skill and know- how on the unresponsive pitches. I’d be more concerned if he wasn’t there.
NEWMAN: No. This time last year I was a bit worried about Jimmy but he was fantastic in the summer and started this tour well. There’s life in the old boy yet. Just don’t expect him to run through Australia with the Kookaburra.
BOOTH: No. He was in the form of his life during the summer, when he took 39 Test wickets at 14. But the truth is he’d settle for double that average in Australia.
HUSSAIN: No. It’s just a fact that an English bowler with a Kookaburra ball in Australia will not look as good as at home.
HAVE AUSTRALIA GOT ONLY TWO TOP BATSMEN?
LLOYD: They’re at sixes and sevens and their squad selection shows it. Khawaja will be at No 3, which becomes a critical position because you’re protecting Smith, your best player, at No 4.
HUSSAIN: Yes. Apart from Warner and Smith it’s not a great batting order. There are question marks at the top of the order, No 6 and the keeper.
BOOTH: That’s the glass-half-full perspective. Get Warner and Smith cheaply, and England have a chance. But Peter Handscomb averages 53 in 10 Tests, and Khawaja averages 63 at home. That said, there are frailties — opener Cameron Bancroft is on debut, and the return to wicketkeeper Tim Paine is mystifying.
McGRATH: Sometimes we are too reliant on Warner and Steve Smith but Handscomb has started his career well. There is enough there for our batsmen to bat around the big two.
NEWMAN: Yes and that’s England’s biggest hope. The supporting cast to Warner and Smith are no great shakes and they’ve picked a keeper in Tim Paine who almost packed up.
WILL WE SEE STOKES?
HUSSAIN: We want what’s best for the England team but we also want what’s best for the game. If Ben is cleared by the police and the ECB disciplinary commission then he should go but, if he does make it, England will have to be ready for a circus off the field.
McGRATH: My gut feeling is we won’t. What he did didn’t look good. His absence is a massive blow for England because he’s two players in one. If he does come then Stuart Broad won’t cop it — there will be a new enemy!
NEWMAN: I don’t think so. Even if he is cleared by police. England should take a strong stance and suspend him for the whole of this series and possibly longer. Even if it means England lose 5-0.
LLOYD: No. He has more important issues to deal with. And even if he is free to go, I think England will ban him for two Tests.
BOOTH: Unlikely. Imagine the circus if he did turn up, never mind the pressure he’d be under. I think we have to accept Stokes has kissed goodbye to what could have been the series of his life.
YOUR PREDICTIONS?
BOOTH: I said 3-2 to Australia. But that was before Stokes got involved in his brawl. Now I reckon 3-1 to the Aussies, with a rainy draw in Brisbane. They just look less weak than England in too many departments.
LLOYD: No. I’m sticking with 3-2 to England. I don’t think either side has the mindset to play for a draw, and for me the bottom line is that they have nothing to fear.
HUSSAIN: If England were at home they would be overwhelming favourites. Historically, Australia is a very hard place to win but I still fancy England.
NEWMAN: I was even more pessimistic now Stokes is not here until I saw that Aussie squad. But I still say, with bad weather forecast for Brisbane, Australia will win 3-1.
McGRATH: Do you have to ask? 5-0 to Australia! People say there’s rain around or that Australia’s bowlers could break down but I’ll always back the Aussies.