UK population could hit 70m three years early

BRITAIN’S population may be growing even faster than official projections admit, according to ‘ alternative’ Whitehall estimates published yesterday.

They say numbers could hit 70million in nine years – three years earlier than in the main population predictions by the office for National Statistics (oNS).

And while the oNS’s mainstream projections say the total will hit 72.9 million in 2041, yesterday’s different estimates, also released by the oNS, put it two-and-a-half million higher, at 75.4 million.

yesterday’s projections are different from the main estimates, published last month, because they are largely based on higher figures for likely future levels of immigration.

The lower figures were calculated on the assumption that far into the future net migration would be 165,000 a year.

But critics said that assumption would lead to ‘inadequate’ estimates of future needs for housing, transport, energy, water, schools and hospitals.

yesterday’s projections are based on an alternative future net migration figure of 245,000 – close to the current level of net migration, given by the oNS as 246,000 in the 12 months to March this year.

The higher projections say that by the end of 2026 there will be 70,324,000 in the UK, up from the 69.2 million suggested by the figures released in october. In october, the main run of oNS future population projections said the 70 million point would not be reached until 2029, and that in the middle of 2041 numbers in the country would be 72.9 million.

yesterday’s projections said the real mid-2041 level would be much higher, at 75,364,000.

They also suggested that far into the future numbers would reach levels that are currently unimaginable.

At the projected rate of increase, they said that almost 110 years from now, in 2116, the population will be close to the 100 million point, at 96,665,000 – almost half as high as the present population, thought to be about 65.6 million.

Lord Green, head of the MigrationWatch UK thinktank, said of yesterday’s projections: ‘They underline the need for the Government to hold their nerve and ensure that Brexit leads to a significant reduction in the level of net migration.’

The oNS said yesterday’s projections were ‘ based on alternative assumptions of future fertility, mortality and net migration’.

The figures, the oNS said, ‘are created to offer users a range of what-if scenarios to illustrate the consequences of a particular, but not necessarily realistic, set of assumptions such as constant fertility or no change and should not be confused with the main projections.’