ENGLAND TO WIN BY ONE POINT!
It’s been a gaffe-prone and miserable few weeks but...
BARELY a week ago there were suggestions that Ireland’s visit to Twickenham today might be an anti- climax given they have already pocketed the Championship — but that is to misunderstand the dynamic of the Six Nations.
It has all been kicking off one way or another and this match should be a classic because there is so much at stake for both teams.
We have had Eddie Jones’s disparaging comments on Ireland and the Welsh, albeit said in jest, and the case of assistant referee Marius van der Westhuizen being invited to help with an England training session this week.
Not much in rugby stops me in my tracks but I was stunned when I saw that and it was totally correct of World Rugby to stand him down.
That England need to stop giving away penalties — 16 in Paris last week — is undeniable, but working with an official who could have had a huge impact on the game was plain wrong.
Then Eddie wielded the axe after two pretty poor England away performances. There had to be changes but I am not sure he has solved matters at either half-back or the back row. The result is a line-up nobody could have anticipated a month ago, with four or five very angry players on the bench who probably feel they have been made scapegoats for recent mediocrity.
I have no problem with angry players. Anger can motivate an individual or help a team emerge from a slump.
But, after a miserable and gaffe-prone few weeks, you might be surprised to find me tipping England to win by the narrowest margin this afternoon.
First, I am confident that a highly motivated England, back in front of their fans, will perform much better than they did the past three games (I include the last hour of their scrappy win over Wales). They will — must — defend their proud home record.
Second, this is an incredibly tricky and high-pressure game for Ireland. That might sound strange for a team who have already won the Championship but Ireland are now at the stage where that really is not enough.
In Six Nations terms, Ireland have been consistently ‘ball park’ since 2003 when we met them in the final game at Lansdowne Road with both sides chasing a Grand Slam.
They are thoroughly good value for their No 2 world ranking but the bottom line is they have been massive underachievers at the World Cup. This is the day they need to dispel that tag and the pressure on them is massive. Ireland coach Joe Schmidt and his group know they must change that perception to have any chance at the next World Cup.
If I were Joe I would ramp up the pressure on these players. Experience has shown me that great players and great teams thrive under pressure.
When I coached England we failed to close out Grand Slams on the road against Ireland, Scotland and Wales and we suffered a World Cup quarterfinal defeat in Paris against South Africa. My favourite saying became branded in my brain — ‘You never lose. You either win or you learn.’
Only when we learnt to react individually and collectively under extreme pressure in a thoroughly positive fashion — taking apart a very good Ireland team in Dublin in the 2003 showdown — were we ready to take on the world.
LANSDOWNE Road, March 30, 2003 is where we won the World Cup. That was the landmark win, after which we knew nothing could stop us. Ireland are in the same position today.
They also know what an anti-climax it can be to win the title a week early and then lose the following week, after which you go up for the presentations.
That was England’s fate 12 months ago when Ireland beat them in Dublin. So what with the added expectation of a St Patrick’s Day win I can see it all being a bit fraught for Ireland today.
For England, a win against such impressive champions would redeem their Six Nations season. I said from the start there would be bumps along the way in this campaign and I would be surprised if Eddie was unprepared for that. If not, he should have been.
You are always under the microscope as the England coach, the pressure is unique but it is about handling it and preparing the best you can for these moments. The honeymoon period is over. Now England and Eddie must deal in harsh reality.
What an opportunity today to get the chariot back on the road. England by one!