Why they’re both at war . . . with their own parties
This weekend both Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn are fighting brutal political battles. But their guns are not trained on each other — in each case, they are at war with their own parties.
Corbyn is despised by the majority of his own MPs, many of whom would stop at nothing to be rid of him. Meanwhile, Mrs May faces an ever-more mutinous and well- organised internal opposition who fear the Brexit 17.4 million people voted for is gradually being watered down.
This Tory cabal believes this week’s transitional deal with the European Union is nothing more or less than a cynical compromise. Theresa May’s settlement with Brussels could leave Britain, in the words of Tory rebel Jacob Rees-Mogg, entrapped as a ‘vassal of Brussels’.
These rebels wonder if Mrs May has ever believed in Brexit, and worry that she wants to keep Britain as close to Brussels as she can.
Their fears are being stoked by the dreadful decision from Amber Rudd’s home Office to give the contract to manufacture the new British passport to France, rather than British workers in the north-east of England.
The Tory feud exploded into the open last week when Conservative Brexiteers refused point-blank to support a report by the powerful Commons committee scrutinising Britain’s withdrawal from the European Union. That report recommended an extension of the transition period — and consequently five anti-EU Tories and a DUP MP who sit on the committee refused to endorse it.
BUTthree Tory MPs on the committee backed it. in my judgment, this split accurately reflects the balance of numbers inside the parliamentary Tory party itself. No less than one in three are backing a so-called soft deal with Brussels.
But approximately 70pc of Conservative MPs are opposed to such concessions.
This is lethally dangerous for Mrs May, because it means she can no longer rely on an overall Parliamentary majority — she barely has one when her party is entirely behind her — to push through her plans for Brexit.
Unfortunately for her, she is committed to winning the endorsement of Parliament for the deal she strikes with Brussels before Britain automatically leaves the EU on March 29 next year.
On the present timetable, that deal should be struck by september at the latest (though many close to the negotiations believe that is too optimistic). so on the basis of this week’s events, Mrs May is about to face the most dangerous period of her premiership — especially if she loses that vote.
Already, i am told, there is a growing rump of Tory MPs who are considering using the results of the local elections in May to attempt to weaken or even unseat her before the Brexit vote comes before the house. These MPs plan to move against her if — as predicted — the Conservatives suffer a series of damaging defeats in the local elections, including in the flagship London boroughs of Westminster and Wandsworth.
But Mrs May’s assured performance in the wake of the nerve agent attack in salisbury — and the European coalition she is doggedly building against Russian aggression — should give those MPs pause for thought.
her challenge to steer her party through the Brexit vote is mighty indeed. But Tory MPs with rebellious thoughts need only look across the floor of the Commons to be reminded of the grave threat from Jeremy Corbyn.
Fortunately for the prime minister she is not the only party leader in trouble. For Mr Corbyn is facing grave problems of his own.
There is no question that he has a civil war on his hands. Momentum, the activist movement compared by some to the hardLeft Militant Tendency of the Eighties, is already targeting moderate senior Labour figures in local government.
Many now expect that over the summer Momentum will de-select Labour MPs disloyal to Corbyn and replace them with figures from the Left-wing of the party.
i predict that if that happens, the rumbling internecine struggle within Labour will erupt into a political bloodbath. Corbyn himself will come under massive pressure to condemn Momentum activists, and the situation could spin out of control very quickly.
DONOT rule out the possibility that the party itself may formally split between Corbynistas and the leader’s opponents in the parliamentary party.
i could envisage a situation where Labour effectively has two leaders — one, possibly unofficially, in the Commons, and Corbyn supported by his fanatical fans across the country.
To sum up, British politics is about to enter a period of bitterness and chaos. Do not presume that the PM’s survival is guaranteed. Do not rule out another general election. And do not rule out the break-up of the Labour Party.
The stakes have never been higher, or the future more uncertain, as we enter the most ruthless stage yet in the battle for Brexit.