STEPHEN GLOVER

ONE year from today, the United Kingdom will leave the European Union. It is now possible to say this with something approaching certainty.

I confess to being somewhat surprised that this momentous upheaval seems very likely to take place despite the awesome efforts of the Establishment.

Immediately after the British people voted to leave in the June 2016 referendum, I was afraid the political class would find a way to frustrate the democratic will of the majority.

But despite countless scare stories propagated by anti- Brexit politicians and the BBC, which followed bloodcurdling predictions pumped out by Project Fear before the vote, this country is on track to exit the EU. In the circumstances, this is little short of a miracle.

It is, above all, a testament to the resilience and sense of the British people — or at any rate the majority who voted for Brexit and have stuck to their guns despite repeated attempts to unnerve them.

Consider how many apocalyptic prophesies have been aimed at them by doomsayers in Westminster and Whitehall, and will doubtless continue to be aired until we leave — and probably beyond.

Before the referendum, Project Fear, orchestrated by the then Chancellor, George Osborne, informed us that a vote to leave would bring about ‘an immediate and profound economic shock’.

Arrogance

An instant recession was predicted if people had the temerity to vote Brexit. Interest rates would rise sharply and unemployment would soar. There would be an emergency Budget.

Of course, none of these things came to pass. The economy continues to grow at a reasonably smart pace, and every quarter it exceeds most official forecasts.

What is so amazing — and, to me, moving — is that 17.5 million people ignored these dire predictions from a ruling class expert in the dark arts of hoodwinking, which had all the resources of the State at its disposal.

At a cost of £9 million, the Government even sent a leaflet to every home, warning voters of the certain shocks to the economy if people were foolish enough to vote Leave.

It turns out the Man in Whitehall does not only not know best, which most of us had gathered long ago. He is also mendacious, manipulative and often mistaken.

This realisation is bound further to undermine the trust of ordinary folk in their rulers. On the whole, this is regrettable. Democracy works best if people have faith in the integrity and competence of those in authority. The loss of trust will take a long time to repair.

Having grossly ( and, I believe, deliberately) exaggerated the perils of voting for Brexit, many with powerful positions in politics and the media have continued to try to make the hairs stand up on the back of our necks.

Among the more fatuous myths is that the availability of material used in cancer treatment may be under threat after Brexit. Planes will be grounded. Traffic queues will stretch from the port of Dover to the M25.

Most of these threats are obsessively recirculated by the BBC. There was a time when almost every morning brought a new, usually bogus, tale of woe, which was promptly forgotten and replaced by another one the following day.

Certainty

It was stated with absolute certainty that thousands of high-paid financial jobs would move from London to Frankfurt or Paris. When a report was published last August forecasting the loss of 40,000 City jobs, it was warmly cited by the Bank of England (which separately suggested that 75,000 jobs could go) and taken up by the BBC.

Yet an apparently authoritative survey produced by Reuters yesterday suggests a mere 5,000 jobs will be lost in London. As I write, this cheering story has not made it even to the outer reaches of the BBC’s extensive website.

Nor, on Tuesday, did Auntie make anything of a prestigious think- tank again naming London as the world’s leading financial centre — ahead of New York (second), Frankfurt ( 20th) and Paris ( 24th). I scoured the pages of the fanatically anti- Brexit Financial Times in vain for a mention of this accolade.

Meanwhile, intransigent Remainers have persisted in their insinuations that anyone who voted for Brexit must be thick or deluded — or both. Don’t such supercilious remarks convey an appalling sense of arrogance and contempt?

Actually, plenty of very brainy people supported Leave — not that they get much of a showing on the BBC. Mervyn King, the former Governor of the Bank of England; the eminent Cambridge historian Robert Tombs and the distinguished philosopher John Gray are just three of them, among thousands of examples.

It is enormously to the credit of the millions of people who voted Leave that they have absorbed, without any weakening of their resolve, this unceasing onslaught of propaganda calculated to undermine their cause.

Zealots

In fact, the very opposite has happened. In a recent poll, 57 per cent of respondents agreed with the proposition that the Government should ‘get on with implementing the result of the referendum to take Britain out of the EU and in doing so take back control of our borders, laws, money and trade’. Only 22 per cent disagreed.

So pronounced is the shift in public opinion in favour of Brexit that, even in reputedly Remainer Scotland, more backed the proposition (44 per cent) than opposed it (32 per cent).

Some obdurate Europhile

politicians such as Nick Clegg, Tony Blair, Chris Patten and Chuka Umunna, who still hold out for a second referendum, had better be careful. They have a diminishing band of supporters and are in danger of appearing isolated zealots.

I don’t doubt, of course, that there will be difficulties ahead, just as there have been difficulties in the past. There will be compromises, too, as there have already been.

No one can be pleased that Britain will have to pay the EU a leaving fee of £37 billion, albeit spread over several decades. As I wrote last week, there are suggestions of a sell-out over fish, though I am assured by aides of Chancellor Philip Hammond that he opposes trading our fishing rights for a better economic deal.

On the other hand, the Northern Irish border presents much less of a problem than the European Union pretends. Vehicles daily cross the border between Switzerland (not in the EU) and France (EU) without hindrance, as they do between Norway (outside the EU customs union) and Sweden (inside).

The truth is that EU Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier and his Remainer supporters in Parliament are using the issue of the Northern Irish border as a device to keep Britain in the customs union.

I suspect the Government will work its way through this problem, just as it has grappled doggedly with other difficulties despite continuous brickbats from Remainers.

In the face of such insults, and Michel Barnier’s infuriating condescension, Brexit Secretary David Davis has shown commendable patience.

But the real heroes of this saga are the British people, who have seen through the lies and scare stories churned out by politicians. What a contrast to the deviousness and defeatism of our ruling class.

And this, surely, is cause for hope. When we leave the EU in a year’s time, there will be untold millions who believe in a great future for this country. And it is they, not the politicians, who will deliver it.