Why thrills of top flight terrify our biggest clubs
CURRENTLY, the longest Champions League run of any Premier League club is with Manchester City, a sevenseason stretch starting from 2011-12.
After that? Tottenham: two years. Liverpool, Manchester United and Chelsea made it this season, but not last. Leicester and Arsenal last season, but not this. Nothing can be guaranteed in the Premier League with six clubs, minimum, vying for four spots.
Compare that uncertainty to the sense of security felt on the continent for clubs such as Bayern Munich ( 10 straight Champions League campaigns), Barcelona (14) or Real Madrid (21). Factor in that the grip of the biggest teams in many of Europe’s major leagues is only getting stronger, then add emerging powerhouses such as Paris Saint- Germain and a reborn Juventus, now recovered from the Calciopoli crisis.
The top of the Premier League is an exceptionally vulnerable environment for the elite right now.
Even City can take nothing for granted. They are the success story of the decade, with three titles — including one pending — and consistent qualification for the Champions League under three different coaches.
Yet when Pep Guardiola leaves, as he inevitably will some day, can a top-four place be guaranteed with the strength of the clubs around them?
Nobody in Spain competes at the financial level of Real Madrid and Barcelona, or of Bayern Munich in Germany, but as the Alexis Sanchez deal proved, some in England can still duke it out with City for the best talent.
Bayern Munich have to fall by 22 points to become disconnected from the Champions League slots in Germany, yet Chelsea have won one less game than Liverpool and Tottenham this season and risk missing out. The margins in England are so much tighter.
Tottenham are moving to their new stadium next season, yet defeat on Sunday at Stamford Bridge could play havoc with their revenue streams and bestlaid plans.
To go there as a Champions League club, or one in the Europa League, is a difference measured in tens of millions.
Ostensibly, Chelsea versus Tottenham this Sunday is a routine fixture between fourth and fifth; in reality, it is one of the key games of the season.
If Tottenham win, or perhaps draw, even by Antonio Conte’s admission it is hard to see Chelsea making it to the Champions League. And while the cream of Europe can estimate what they will have coming in many years from now, imagine overseeing the financial planning at Chelsea.
Champions one season, 10th the next. Champions again — and then what? The Europa League, maybe? Right now, who can say?
And how should a paid up member of Europe’s elite budget for that? How to deal with a demanding manager like Conte not knowing the whereabouts of £50m or so?
And it isn’t just Chelsea living with this uncertainty. Manchester United needed to win the Europa League to make the Champions League this season and in 2014-15 they were not even in Europe.
Despite lucrative commercial revenue streams, these variables are enormous. United are stable but, despite that, there