A battle of character ...and only one winner
Any party that has been in power for eight years expects to lose a significant number of seats in local elections. Such has been the pattern for as long as pollsters can remember.
The Tories have not merely been in government since 2010. They are grappling with the complexities of Brexit, and have recently been beset with many other difficulties, from the Windrush scandal to the latest nHS calamity over breast cancer screening.
Many observers reasonably envisaged a Conservative wipeout in Thursday’s elections. The BBC and other media organisations despatched legions of reporters to Wandsworth in London in the expectation that the Conservatives might be about to lose control of that flagship council for the first time since 1978.
In the event, the Tories fared much better than almost anyone had predicted. There was a small swing of 1.5 per cent from the Conservatives to Labour in London, and a swing of about 1 per cent in the reverse direction outside the capital.
This seems, in the circumstances, a remarkable outcome. Jeremy Corbyn may try to comfort himself and his supporters with the reflection that the result leaves Labour well poised for the next general election, but he must know in his heart that it does no such thing.
I believe a large part of the explanation of what has happened has to do with voters’ assessment of the character of Theresa May, and the dogged manner in which she is pursuing Brexit. They could have elected to punish her in much greater numbers than they have chosen to do.
After all, she was Home Secretary in 2014 when a policy of targeting illegal immigrants was conceived which has had the unintended effect of penalising untold numbers of blameless longterm Caribbean immigrants. She might have expected a more painful comeuppance.
Only six days ago, Amber Rudd was forced to resign as Home Secretary, admittedly as much as a consequence of having misled Parliament as because of the shameful Windrush imbroglio. But her self-immolation did not reflect well on the Government.
Moreover, it came after the Deputy Prime Minister, Defence Secretary and International Development Secretary have all been required to walk the plank. To lose four Cabinet ministers since last June’s general election might be thought to constitute a nearfatal achievement.
And that election, of course, was conducted by Mrs May and her advisers with singular incompetence.
How is it that Mrs May has survived these setbacks and more, and escaped the near- certain catastrophe which many pundits had forecast would be her lot in the local elections? Part of the explanation obviously has to do with the manifest shortcomings of Jeremy Corbyn, and in particular the recent allegations of anti-Semitism which have clung to him and his supporters.
Jewish voters accordingly punished his party in the London borough of Barnet, where the Tories gained overall control of a council Labour had hoped to win.
BuTit is not just a question of the myriad deficiencies of the Labour leader. I believe that, notwithstanding Mrs May’s undoubted mistakes, a larger proportion of voters than might have been expected have retained confidence in her as the best bet we have. She may not be the most imaginative leader in the world, and she is certainly no Margaret Thatcher. But she has demonstrated a cool-headedness under fire, and a commendable resilience, which have registered with many voters.
A lesser politician would have walked away after the disastrous outcome of the general election. A feebler Prime Minister might have concluded that – squeezed as she is between fervent Brexiteers insisting on a complete withdrawal from the Eu customs union, and Remainers who want to keep a foot firmly in it – there are more enjoyable ways of spending one’s life.
nothing seems to floor Theresa May. She just keeps plugging away. When her preferred policy of entering a customs partnership with the Eu was rejected by a majority on the Brexit Cabinet sub-committee on Wednesday, she dusted herself off and agreed another solution must be found.
Her painstaking and methodical approach was shown to best advantage after the poisoning of Sergei and yulia Skripal in Salisbury. She succeeded in meticulously assembling an international alliance against Russia, though many knowledgeable pundits had declared that Brexit Britain would find herself isolated.
What that episode showed to many was that Mrs May is a dependable and imperturbable leader in a dangerous world, while the alternatives of Jeremy Corbyn and his old flame, Shadow Home Secretary Diane Abbott, are cravenly anxious to extend a quivering hand to the brutal Russian bear.
Granted, it’s one thing to keep one’s head in a crisis, quite another to provide solutions to daunting problems.
Charting the best path through the thicket of Brexit negotiations won’t be easy. But Thursday’s elections appear to suggest that voters believe Theresa May is the politician most likely to find it.