WHY ENGLAND MUST WIN TODAY
IT HAS been a rough couple of months for Eddie Jones and England, on and off the pitch. It seems a long time since that strong final quarter against Australia, which led to a very good victory in November, but I believe they will win at Ellis Park — because they have to. This is a huge game and a pivotal moment for England, the biggest of Eddie’s tenure. Start this tour on the wrong foot and it could go horribly pear-shaped, with much of the progress of Eddie’s first two seasons going to waste. But England feel they have a better team and can outplay and outthink this new-look South Africa team. Win, by whatever score, and England can get back on track quickly because the talent is there in abundance. I’m not necessarily looking for a beautiful style of play today, just a return to winning ways. Ordinarily, I would be very wary of South Africa. New coach, new captain, new regime, new hope, plus some seriously talented individuals. They have momentum and motivation going into the game. South Africa have been in decline for too long and soon they will begin to punch their weight again. But it is still early days for coach Rassie Erasmus. We have no idea how they are going to play — their match against Wales a week ago, when Erasmus put a second team out, was meaningless — and you would expect them to take time to gel. They will be sharp and intense — there will be energy everywhere — and the crowd will be behind them. But can they handle the pressure of a Test with such expectation on their shoulders? The number of penalties in the opening 30 minutes will tell us either way. England are desperate for a win and will match that intensity and feed off a hostile reception. The teamwork built up during a difficult season should just about see them through and I’m expecting a backs-to-the-wall effort. That’s my gut feeling, though I can’t say I am wildly excited by the England line-up. The team-sheet doesn’t scream one of the top-ranked teams to me. The key is the Saracens contingent, who finished the season so strongly. They were imperious in the Premiership final and everybody in the England team must take their cue from the Sarries guys. Owen Farrell is pivotal at 12 — and as captain — and all the time he is playing well, England will be competitive. He won’t be fazed by anything and is a rallying point for any team he plays in. But in South Africa it all begins up front and that’s where the Saracens influence will be felt most. Can Mako Vunipola repeat his extraordinary performance from the Premiership final? Can brother Billy’s hamstring stand the hard ground? Maro Itoje looks back in the groove and hopefully can repeat the all-round excellence he demonstrated in the last two Lions Tests. His young Saracens colleague in the second row, Nick Isiekwe, is a fantastic prospect. He could be another Maro, in which case England look well blessed at second row. It is also down to Jamie George to put his best foot forward to claim Dylan Hartley’s No 2 shirt. George has some really good skills and plenty of pace but at this level it’s the basics that come first. England have to win the front-row fight at scrum time and George must locate his lineout jumpers. Altitude? I don’t really see it as an issue and it won’t matter if England can do a good job today.