Boardroom moaners who always get it wrong

fIVe business lobby groups have written to the Prime Minister warning that a lack of clarity on Brexit could cost the economy billions. however, their previous dire warnings have proved wide of the mark...

CONFEDERATION OF BRITISH INDUSTRY WHAT IT SAID:

The CBI warned repeatedly against leaving the EU during the referendum campaign.

In March 2016 it said Brexit would cause a ‘serious economic shock’ that could destroy 950,000 jobs and cost the country £100billion by 2020 by damaging growth.

CBI director-general Carolyn Fairbairn said: ‘Leaving the EU would be a real blow for living standards, jobs and growth. The savings from reduced EU budget contributions and regulation are greatly outweighed by the negative impact on trade and investment.’

WHAT HAPPENED:

The employment rate has climbed to a record of 75.6 per cent. There are 32.4million people in work – 659,000 more than before the vote. The unemployment rate has fallen to 4.2 per cent, its lowest since 1975.

The CBI’s forecast of a £100billion economic hit by 2020 also appears mistaken.

It said growth would fall to an average 0.9 per cent in the worst case scenario after a vote for Brexit. But the economy grew at 1.9 per cent in 2016 and 1.8 per cent last year.

ENGINEERING EMPLOYERS’ FED WHAT IT SAID:

In a letter weeks before the Brexit vote, EEF boss Terry Scuoler said: ‘Many manufacturers fear that Britain would be economically weaker if there is a vote to leave the EU. We would certainly lose jobs and contracts overseas.’

WHAT HAPPENED: THE post-vote fall in the pound acted as a boost for manufacturers, with surveys consistently showing a surge in exports. Factory output has grown for the past 22 months, a survey by IHS Markit shows.

Meanwhile, the number of manufacturing jobs has risen by 31,000 to 2.5million since the referendum. BRITISH CHAMBERS OF COMMERCE WHAT IT SAID:

The BCC was neutral during the referendum campaign. But in September 2016 after the vote to Leave, it cut its growth forecasts from 2.2 per cent to 1.8 per cent in 2016 and from 2.3 per cent to 1 per cent in 2017.

WHAT HAPPENED:

The economy beat the BCC’s forecasts in 2016 by 0.1 percentage points. Last year it did much better than the organisation expected, with growth of 1.8 per cent.

FEDERATION OF SMALL BUSINESSES WHAT IT SAID:

An FSB survey weeks after the Brexit vote suggested confidence among members had

fallen to a four-year low. Chairman Mike Cherry said: ‘For the first time since 2009, the UK economy faces a real chance of a recession.’ WHAT HAPPENED:

The economy grew by 1.9 per cent in 2016. At the start of 2017, an FSB survey showed confidence had bounced back to where it was before the vote.

INSTITUTE OF DIRECTORS WHAT IT SAID:

An IOD survey after the vote found 25 per cent of its members were planning a hiring freeze and 5 per cent were threatening to make redundancies. Around a fifth claimed they were planning to move operations and jobs to cities such as Frankfurt and Dublin.

WHAT HAPPENED:

The number of people in employment rose by 44,000 in the three months after the Brexit vote. Redundancies rose slightly after the vote, but have fallen back to below their pre-referendum levels.

Relocations to foreign cities are harder to measure. But in banking many chief executives have quietly scaled back their plans to shift workers abroad.