What WAS agreed ... and how it rates on soft Brexit scale

PRIME Minister Theresa May hailed the Brexit blueprint hammered out at Chequers on Friday as a step towards achieving the ‘best outcome’ for the UK’s future security and prosperity.

But over the weekend critics have lined up to lambast the three-page summary, with some branding it the ‘softest’ of all possible Brexits – with the fear the UK will remain in the EU in all but name. Here IAN DRURY analyses the main pledges thrashed out at Chequers, giving them a ‘Soft Brexit Rating’ out of five: FREE TRADE

PLEDGE: The UK and EU will establish a free trade area for goods, intended to avoid friction at the border and protect jobs and livelihoods.

REALITY: Essentially this is the single market for goods in all but name – even though the Government said leaving the single market was one of the ‘red lines’ it would not go back on. In any event, it could still be rejected by Brussels as being detrimental to the ‘integrity’ of its so-called ‘four single market freedoms’: goods, services, people and capital.

Any agreement on a free trade deal for goods could yet see Brussels demanding further concessions from Britain. SOFT BREXIT RATING: 4

‘COMMON RULEBOOK’

PLEDGE: Britain to have a ‘common rulebook’ for food, farm and manufactured goods, shadowing EU regulations. It would also commit to ‘ongoing harmonisation’ with EU rules.

REALITY: The common rulebook effectively means the UK would simply replicate every EU regulation as well as staying up to date with new ones (the process known as ‘ ongoing harmonisation’).

So if Brussels changed the rules on kettles, then Britain would be expected to follow suit. Critics claim this would hamper the UK’s ability to strike trade deals with other countries such as America, which adopts differing standards on animal welfare, for example.

We would be unable to relax or tweak regulations to offer more choice to consumers. SOFT BREXIT RATING: 5

THE LAW

PLEDGE: Parliament to have the final say on incorporating European rules into UK law - and can reject any they do not like.

REALITY: This suggests that MPs would have the power to opt out of any new EU rules they dislike, rather than the rules automatically coming into force as at present.

But the Government accepts that not doing so will have ‘consequences’ for market access, security cooperation or the frictionless border – with the EU being able to punish any resistance. This would be a huge disincentive to Parliament to diverge from EU rules. SOFT BREXIT RATING: 4

UK SERVICES

PLEDGE: Britain will not abide by a ‘common rulebook’ for services, including banking and financing. REALITY: The UK’s world-leading services sector will enjoy ‘ regulatory flexibility’. That means it will almost certainly lose its current levels of access to EU markets but companies will be unshackled to strike potentially lucrative agreements around the world.

However, the City seems to be relaxed and has broadly welcomed the deal. SOFT BREXIT RATING: 1

CUSTOMS

PLEDGE: A new Facilitated Customs Arrangement (FCA) will remove the need for customs checks and controls between the UK and EU.

REALITY: Designed to help solve the Irish border question, this means that imported goods would be charged a UK-set tariff unless they are to be sent on to the Continent. In these circumstances, the EU tariff would be charged and the money passed to Brussels.

This is to maintain a frictionless Irish border but new technology will also be developed to track the movement of goods.

Critics – such as Labour’s Sir Keir Starmer who want to stay in a customs union with the EU – say FCA will be an unworkable bureaucratic nightmare that restricts trade growth. Supporters say electronic systems are already used to monitor goods arriving in the UK from outside the EU. SOFT BREXIT RATING: 2

WORLD TRADE

PLEDGE: Britain will be able to deliver an independent trade policy, with its own seat at the World Trade Organisation, the ability to set our own tariffs and secure deals with other countries.

REALITY: This is clearly intended to placate supporters of Brexit who say that one of the key benefits of quitting the EU is strengthening our links with emerging markets, such as India, South America, China and the rest of the Commonwealth.

But if Britain simply aligns its regulations on goods the ability to strike trade deals with the rest of the world, including the US, will be jeopardised. SOFT BREXIT RATING: 3

FARMS & FISH

PLEDGE: The UK will leave the Common Agricultural Policy and Common Fisheries Policy.

REALITY: Britain will be able to strike its own path on farming and the CAP payments system, which Environment Secretary Michael Gove has dismissed as ‘unjust, inefficient and perverse’.

Getting back control of our seas should guarantee a greater catch for British trawlermen. At present, around 40 per cent of England’s fishing quota is caught by foreign- owned vessels. Sceptics worry, however, that the EU will demand concessions on this in return for a free trade area in goods. SOFT BREXIT RATING: 1

MIGRATION

PLEDGE: Free movement will end, giving the UK back control over how many people enter the country.

REALITY: Concern about mass migration was one of the main reasons the public voted for Brexit. One of Mrs May’s red lines, she insists free movement from the EU will finish. But an as yet undefined ‘ mobility framework’ mentioned in the Downing Street document appears to pave the way for EU and UK citizens to travel freely for work and study. It says this is ‘similar to what the UK may offer other close trading partners in the future’. More details on the future immigration policy are expected in the autumn and this remains unresolved. SOFT BREXIT RATING: 3

UK COURTS

PLEDGE: The supremacy of the UK’s courts will be restored and with it British sovereignty.

REALITY: Ending the supremacy of the European Court of Justice (ECJ) was another of Mrs May’s red lines, but it is unclear how this will work alongside the pledge to follow EU rules on goods, the environment and social policy – meaning the UK will still be a ‘rule-taker’, not a ‘rule-maker’.

The document says that UK courts would pay ‘due regard’ to the ECJ’s ruling. Disputes between the UK and EU would be decided using independent arbitration. SOFT BREXIT RATING: 4

CASH TO EU

PLEDGE: The UK will end ‘vast’ annual payments to EU budget.

REALITY: Britain currently pays £10billion a year into Brussels coffers – 11 per cent of the bloc’s budget. This is to be slashed, says the document, ‘releasing funds for domestic priorities’ – in particular the Government’s long-term plan to give the NHS an extra £20billion a year by 2023.

But it accepts there will still be ‘appropriate contributions’ to the EU for joint action in specific areas, such as science and innovation. And the UK has already agreed to pay a whopping £39million divorce bill to leave the EU. SOFT BREXIT RATING: 3

NO DEAL

PLEDGE: Step up preparedness for the ‘full range’ of outcomes that might result from negotiations – including no deal.

REALITY: Triggering Article 50, Mrs May insisted that ‘no deal was better than a bad deal’. The implication was that she would ditch the negotiations if the EU sought to punish Britain for leaving. Following months of offering concession after concession, few now seriously believe she will walk away from the table – not least the EU’s negotiating team.

Nevertheless, in what appears to be a sop to Brexiteers, the document says ‘ no deal’ is a possibility and that preparations should be ‘ stepped up’. Critics say this is too little, too late – and that more work should have been done months ago. SOFT BREXIT RATING: 3