Migration ‘fuels 400,000 rise in pupil numbers’
SECONDARY schools will have to cope with more than 400,000 extra pupils within a decade amid rising immigration and a baby boom, according to official estimates.
Head teachers face increasing pressure as the high numbers in primaries begin to be felt in secondaries as pupils grow older.
Overall, the number of pupils in secondaries has risen to 2.8million – up by 1.9 per cent compared to last year, the Department for Education (DfE) figures show.
Further rises are expected over future years, with the secondary population estimated to reach 3.3million in 2027.
This would be 418,000 pupils higher than this year, representing a 14.7 per cent rise.
In state primaries, there has been a rise in pupils in recent years, but this is levelling off.
The overall population in primary schools is projected to be 4.5million in 2027 – down 112,000 pupils compared to about 4.6million this year.
The DfE’s national pupil projections report says: ‘Direct immigration of pupils born outside the UK has a very small effect on the school age population. However, the birth rate, which has a much larger effect, is in turn affected by any increase in the number of children born to non- UK born women (who overall tend to have higher fertility rates).’ A second DfE document says that the number of children born to non-UK born women increased by about 75 per cent between 2002 and 2013.
These are the years in which many children currently in schools were born, ‘ although this was a period of increased births generally’, it adds.
Professor Alan Smithers, of the Centre for Education and Employment Research at Buckingham University, said the country became concerned about high rates of immigration ‘too late’.
He added: ‘People coming to this country have traditionally had very large families ... The Government should have made serious planning for this.’
The Department for Education said that in the ten years up to 2020 a million school places will have been created – backed by £23billion of investment by 2021.