Patriotic. Optimistic. And a world expert on trade deals. The top aide Mrs May MUST listen to on Brexit
(Not the rest of the defeatist civil service)
It is the office of Crawford Falconer, Chief Trade Negotiation Adviser at the Department of International Trade, a man of immense experience in such matters. And, in contrast to the doomsayers, his message about Brexit is one of almost unbounded optimism.
Rather than get het up about every scintilla of the negotiating process, he insists on looking at the bigger picture, saying: ‘Keep your eye on the end game.’
He is convinced that after a period of psychological and economic adjustment to being outside the EU, Britain’s fortunes will thrive. He cannot understand why people are ‘so negative about our future’, and says the world is ‘begging’ to do trade deals with us.
Some will scoff, of course, saying his upbeat comments are simply the pipedream of a pro-Brexit ideologue.
But that could not be further from the truth. For Falconer is a man with 25 years of experience in international trade negotiations. He was New Zealand’s ambassador in Britain ( although born in Scotland, he was brought up a Kiwi), as well as his adopted country’s permanent representative to the World Trade Organisation (WTO).
His knowledge of the working of the Geneva-based organisation is crucial, considering its role trying to tear down trade barriers, lower tariffs and resolve commercial disputes between nations. Indeed, the fact is that if Britain leaves the EU without a deal, all our world trade relationships will be in the hands of the WTO.
Yet his verdict on a postBrexit Britain could not be more upbeat.
‘The opportunities are enormous,’ he told the Sunday Times. ‘There are so many, where do I start? In ten years, maybe even quicker, people will look back and say: “Oh, why were we so negative about our future?” ’
Nor is his optimism dimmed by Mrs May’s Chequers deal. He believes that once outside the EU, whether after a soft or a hard Brexit, the Government will be much better placed than the doom- mongers behind Project Fear claim.
He says we’ll benefit from a ‘change of direction’ — not least because Brexit has forced businesses to focus on the potential of selling services and goods outside the EU.
Indeed, his enthusiasm is so infectious it makes you think that if he was in charge of Brexit, the whole thing would be wrapped up by now.
And far from being pie-inthe-sky, his reasoning is based on solid evidence.
The Washington- based International Monetary Fund forecasts that over the next ten to 15 years almost all significant global growth will originate Europe.
By 2020, China’s middle class — who are powerful engines of economic growth — will have expanded to 600 million people. India’s already numbers up to 300 million. It is estimated there will be 1.1 billion African middle classes by 2060.
Those populations, Falconer explains, will be desperate for British services and goods.
‘The world is the UK’s oyster,’ he says. ‘We produce the best professional services in the world. Our banks are the best in the world. Our insurance companies the most reliable. Our architects, our designers, our lawyers, our accountants: they are world-class.
‘We have intellectual property rights to die for. It is these services that the fastestgrowing economies in Asia and Africa crave. The world is begging for the UK to be able to trade with it. We’ll be pushing on an open door.’
He sees huge export opportunities in goods from cars to aircraft wings and foodstuffs. ‘The world is crying out for protein and safe food generally. In East Asia, that’s what they want. They don’t trust their domestic production, with good reason. The UK makes world- class produce. We can now negotiate with countries in a way that’s specifically tailored to getting our salmon and our venison on tables.’
He’s right. Even amid the present political stalemate, Britain’s exports of professional and financial services to the rest of the world (including the EU) climbed from £36.9 billion in the first quarter of 2017 to £37.8 billion in the same three months of this year.
As well as being a powerhouse for financial services, Britain is home to Europe’s top four research universities and dominates in sectors such as popular music, computer gaming, video and publishing.
We’re world- beaters in pharmaceutical and aerospace research. Our technology know-how is envied across the globe, with Chinese, Japanese and American digital firms constantly on the prowl to buy our leading innovative firms.
In the past six months, Chinese firms have invested £1.7 billion in UK technology.
Every businessman or woman worth their salt is fully aware of the opportunities available by exploiting this huge competitive advantage.
And Dr Liam Fox and his Department of International Trade colleagues are determined to do so. Post-Brexit, they argue, Britain can take advantage of all this.
Of course, following two world wars, Britain has benefited hugely in economic terms by sharing trade interests with other members of the EU.
But the fact is that, despite Brussels bravado about the efficacy of a Single Market, EU member states have suffered over recent years because their Brussels rule- setters have been too inward-looking. They are obsessed by trade within the EU — to the detriment of the potential of wider possibilities across the whole world.
In contrast, the Department of International Trade looks outwards. In pursuit of the deals Britain must strike postBrexit, Fox has travelled more than 300,000 miles. He may be mocked for trying to woo trade partners by giving them Union Jack cufflinks, but this ignores the hard work that his senior officials such as Crawford Falconer have been doing.
Their outward-looking drive is vital at a time when Donald Trump has launched an international trade war by imposing tariffs on Chinese goods and taxes on imports such as steel and aluminium from EU countries. Indeed, the fear is that we are heading for trade wars on a scale not seen since the Thirties.
I am not so pessimistic. Too few people realise that behind all his bluster, Trump’s goal is not to sabotage the world’s trading system but to spark a new round of negotiations which will lead to tariffs being reduced in the long run.
Indeed, his policy is already having success. China and India have lowered tariff barriers in response to his threats.
Meanwhile, German car manufacturers have made it clear they want to negotiate tarifffree trade between the U.S. and Europe for motor vehicles.
The shape of global trade is changing before our eyes — and it is trade outside Europe that we must encourage.
Anyone who listens to those who want the UK to stay in the EU would think that Brexit was a crazy act of self-harm.
The truth is otherwise. Ever since the Brexit vote, our economy has prospered. Unemployment is at its lowest level since the Seventies.
Freed at last from the shackles of Brussels, what Dr Liam Fox and Crawford Falconer want is for Britain to seize the ‘ enormous opportunities’ ahead. And for our political leaders to stop all their squabbling.