MyBrexit crystal ball

With Britain facing its biggest political crisis since the war, this is what I see in ...

TREACHERY. Betrayal. Sabotage. Nothing less than the destruction of a Prime Minister. There’s been an explosion of feverish speculation over the past 48 hours about the collapse of Theresa May’s much-vaunted Chequers deal, and whether that would spell the end of her premiership.

Add to the mix the frenzied gossip about the fall-out from Boris Johnson’s divorce and the mood in Westminster could not be more inflamed.

Time, therefore, for an attempt at a calm appraisal of the raw facts about Brexit.

Above all, the most fundamental thing to remember is that just over six months — 203 days to be exact — remain until Britain must leave the EU under the provisions of Article 50. This is the European law invoked by Mrs May to trigger the process for us to leave after 46 years as a member.

The Government is adamant that an exit deal is struck with Brussels before the leaving date of March 29 next year.

There is, however, no obligation that we exit with a deal. If ministers fail to strike an accord with the remaining 27 EU countries, Britain would trade with other countries in agriculture, textiles, banking, telecommunications etc on the basis of principles set out by the World Trade Organisation.

This is the outcome recommended by Brexiteer Tories such as Jacob Rees-Mogg and Boris Johnson.

Mrs May, by contrast, agrees with leading business organisations and others who want Britain to trade with EU countries after Brexit based on mutually agreed terms.

Understandably, she has freftul nights over the possible consequences for British jobs and the country’s exports if there is no deal.

Hence her Chequers solution — which would allow Brussels a big say over British laws in return for British access to European markets — which was agreed with her Cabinet in July.

Whereas she sees her Chequers deal as common-sense, an increasingly large number see it as a betrayal. Much to Mrs May’s chagrin, her blueprint came under attack this week from Brexiteers and Remainers. This is why there has been such a tumult about whether her days in No 10 are numbered.

I believe that the facts point to one conclusion: that she is secure — at least for the immediate future.

Most significantly, the timetable for Brexit works against a change of prime minister.

LETme explain. First, there will be a Cabinet meeting next Thursday to discuss Brexit strategy. Mrs May will demand ironclad loyalty from her ministers.

I predict she will get it. For ministers realise what is at stake — particularly as the PM is due to meet fellow European leaders in Salzburg on September 20.

This Austrian summit offers her a vital opportunity to appeal over the heads of Brussels’ chief Brexit negotiator, the intransigent Michel Barnier and his recalcitrant colleagues.

I have been told that Mrs May calculates her proposals will meet with a far warmer reception from German Chancellor Angela Merkel and other national leaders. I believe she will be proved right.

Next, the Brexit countdown will focus on British domestic politics — and the much-ballyhooed ‘challenge’ to Mrs May’s leadership of the Tory Party by Boris Johnson.

It has been widely reported that his supporters will use the Tory conference in Birmingham next month to try to engineer a revolt against the Chequers deal.

However, Tory grassroots members realise the stakes are so high that I predict they will rebuff the challenge. What’s more, I believe Mrs May will triumph and her Chequers deal with survive, albeit a little scuffed.

The fact is, she is respected by those at the heart of the Tory Party in the shires in a way that no other leader has been since Margaret Thatcher.

Party activists have genuine affection for her and see potential rivals as flash, egotistical opportunists.

After the drama of the party conference season, attention will then concentrate on the summit of European leaders on October 18.

According to the official Brexit timetable, this is when Mrs May must agree a deal which will take this country out of the EU.

However, those familiar with the protracted negotiations say that a deal is unlikely to be struck and that an emergency summit will be scheduled for November.

This would be the last possible date that a deal can be struck — because of the time- consuming ratification process which requires all 27 member states to sign up before Britain formally quits next March.

Of course, the last scene of the last act of the Brexit drama — when Mrs May takes any deal back to Westminster — will be her moment of greatest danger.

Inevitably, it will mean a confrontation not only with those still sore about Brexit, die-hard Remainers, those demanding a second referendum and a Labour Party eager to exploit her weakness, but it also risks a confrontation with Johnson, Rees-Mogg and their cabal of Tory Brexiteers.

The latter Brutuses may think this offers the chance to wield the knife. But a close study of the leadership rules of the Conservative Party shows that they would be harbouring false hopes.

The rules state that at least 48 Tory MPs — representing 15 per cent of the total number — must write letters to activate a confidence motion in Mrs May. If those 48 letters are mustered — and my soundings certainly suggest that such a target could be achieved — party rules stipulate that there would then be a confidence vote in Mrs May via a secret ballot of Tory MPs. Only if Mrs May failed to gain a majority would she have to resign. Yet my crystal ball tells me that if there was a confidence vote, Mrs May would survive by a large margin. Again, my reasoning is based on the strictures of the political timetable. If Mrs May lost a confidence motion, Tory Party rules state that a leadership contest must ensue — beginning with a series of ballots in which Conservative MPs would vote for their preferred candidate. The two candidates with most votes would then fight it out among the party rank and file on a ‘ one member one vote’ basis. Whereas a confidence vote among MPs would take a few days, this party-wide leadership contest would last up to two months. For it would require public hustings and ballots to be posted and returned. That is far too long a period of uncertainty at a time of what would undoubtedly be a national crisis.

DURING

this period, a broken Mrs May would possibly remain as a stop-gap and lame duck Prime Minister — or worse, there would be a stand-in with zero authority.

What’s more, if Tory MPs ditched Mrs May, they would rightly be held in contempt by the public for dereliction of duty at the most pivotal moment in our national fortunes since World War II. This is why I believe Mrs May will hang on until at least next spring. Indeed, much more likely than her defenestration, she will bring her Chequers deal back to Westminster for approval. Of course, in this scenario, rebel Brexiteers could join with Labour and the SNP in voting down her deal.

If that happened, Mrs May would be obliged to resign. Then the Queen would have no choice but to ask Jeremy Corbyn, as leader of the Opposition, to try to form a government.

If he failed to command a Commons majority — the most likely outcome — a general election would have to be held.

No Tory, however much they may loathe the Chequers deal, would want either a Corbyn government or a third general election in three years.

Be in no doubt: we are facing a possible constitutional crisis of the kind that takes place in Britain at most once a century.

To avoid this, I expect good sense to prevail. I expect Theresa May will strike a deal with Brussels — and, if she rides her luck, should remain PM until the next general election, which is scheduled for 2022.