Memo’s verdict on contenders

David Davis Claims not to be interested, but is. Won’t succeed. Too late.

Liam Fox Will repeat 2016 strategy to try to prolong frontline career. Fading. Michael Gove Has consistently made noises suggesting he remains on manoeuvres – future Chancellor? Philip Hammond Thinks he has a chance. Not a hope, but will want to remain at the Treasury. Matt Hancock Super ambitious, hawkish on Syria with an eye on the Party in the country. Damian Hinds A Remainer, but reported as a threat by Williamson allies. No profile. Jeremy Hunt Dark horse, near the front of the pack coming up on the rail (note John Major 1 0). Sajid Javid Wants it, trying to recover from Referendum positioning error.

Boris Johnson Bookies’ favourite after Jacob Rees-Mogg, but the front-runner never wins.

Andrea Leadsom Intends to correct her errors in 2016 leadership race but totally unsuitable.

David Lidington A Remainer, but not incredible. Would be deselected early.

Penny Mordaunt Insufficient authority and profile in the near-term. Amber Rudd Credible, notwithstanding Windrush but a Remainer; very small majority (346). Liz Truss On manoeuvres, probably replicating Fox’s strategy. Gavin Williamson In full campaign mode, but very reliant on PM controlling her own departure point.