PETER OBORNE
ANGRy. Defiant. yet rational. Speaking in front of two large Union flags in her Downing Street bunker yesterday, this was a theresa May we’ve never seen before. Indeed, there were shades of Margaret thatcher when, years ago, she defied her own Brussels nemesis Jacques Delors by telling him: ‘No! No! No!’
and what a contrast with the desperate and almost tearful Mrs May on public view in Salzburg less than 24 hours earlier.
a performance of this power during last year’s General Election campaign might have seen her win by a landslide. the Prime Minister is now rallying much of her mutinous Conservative Party behind her — even some of the most die-hard Brexiteers.
One thing is certain. Mrs May is guaranteed a much easier reception from the tory faithful at the party’s conference in Birmingham in 11 days’ time.
after yesterday’s ultimatum to the other 27 EU leaders that they must treat the UK with ‘respect’ in Brexit negotiations, she can no longer be accused of being spineless.
I was reminded of King Lear when he said: ‘I will do such things. What they are yet I know not, but they shall be the terrors of the earth. you think I’ll weep? No, I’ll not weep.’
yes, all alone in Salzburg, she must have seen France’s Emmanuel Macron, EU chief Donald tusk and angela Merkel as her own ‘terrors of the earth’.
Whatever people say about our Prime Minister, she has nobly striven to obtain a meaningful settlement with Brussels ever since she took up her post more than 26 months ago.
Now nearing the endgame, she has staked all her authority and every last ounce of her political credibility on her Chequers proposals. her determination to press on has been driven by her insistence that British companies should not suffer any disturbance post-Brexit in their trade with Europe.
For her, the alternative would risk constitutional, political and economic havoc. and personally, such a result would surely mean she would have to step down. Of course, this is the nightmare scenario. But I want to consider a more likely outcome — that a compromise deal will be found.
That deal would have to be approved by a vote by MPs. Crucially, the arithmetic of the house of Commons will dictate whether any Brexit deal is accepted.
Currently, there are 315 Conservative MPs, 257 Labour, 35 Scottish Nationalists, 12 Lib Dems and ten Ulster Unionists.
Even assuming that the vast majority of tories back Mrs May — and that is a big ‘if’ — there is no guarantee that she would win a Commons Brexit vote.
For the sake of argument, consider if Mrs May lost. Jeremy Corbyn would be asked to form a Labour government. But I am convinced that, even with Scottish Nationalist support, he would not be able to hold such a government together. that would plunge Britain into a third General Election in three years.
In view of what would be seen as an unwanted poll, caused by warring and incompetent tories’ inability to secure Brexit, Corbyn would be favourite to win.
hence next week’s Labour conference in Liverpool could be a gathering of Britain’ s government-in-waiting.
In that case, it would be one of the most important Labour conferences for years — comparable with those dramatic events in the Eighties when Neil Kinnock took on and defeated the militant hard Left.
Significantly, Corbyn is coming under huge pressure to commit Labour to join calls for a second referendum on Brexit.
he’s being told by advisers that this is the only way that he can bring together the disparate elements of his party, comprising Momentum (his hard-Left base of intensely loyal activists) on one side and Blairites on the other.
however, backing a second referendum would mean going against his long-held principles.
at heart, he is anti-EU — having voted in the 1975 referendum for Britain to pull out of the Common Market, alongside his hero tony Benn who saw it as an antidemocratic ‘capitalist club’.
Corbyn believes that he cannot achieve his dream of creating a socialist Britain while we belong to the EU.
HAPPILY, therefore, he has consistently stated that it is Labour policy to respect the 2016 referendum result. this means a Labour government under him would honour the Brexit vote.
that said, over the coming days, he will face a formidable coalition of forces which are determined to persuade him to make a U-turn and publicly entertain the idea of Britain remaining in the EU.
Momentum, for example, says it won’t stand in the way of a debate on a second Brexit referendum after local groups pushed for members to be given a say.
the Labour Party as a whole is at sixes and sevens over Brexit.
this was evident yesterday when the party’s Brexit spokesman, Sir Keir Starmer, had no comment to make on his normally busy twitter account about Mrs May’s Salzburg bruising.
Still, I can’t see how Corbyn can avoid coming up with a clearer Brexit policy next week.
his trade union paymasters are placing intense pressure on him to review his stance. In a fascinating development, delegates at the trades Union Congress voted to keep open the possibility of a second referendum.
this chimes with Sir Keir’s own views — having said he wants another referendum to be ‘on the table’ if Parliament votes down Mrs May’s deal.
and, of course, former party leader tony Blair and his supporters last week launched a campaign for another vote on Europe.
So here we have a powerful range of people across the spectrum of views in the Labour Party who disagree with their leader on Brexit. In addition, Corbyn is being told that a change of stance on Brexit could enable him to reunite a Labour Party damaged by toxic allegations of anti-Semitism.
One final factor should not be underestimated.
Pollsters report that Labour voters have become keener on Remain since the referendum. this is significant, because it allays Corbynista fears that by changing tack on Europe, hundreds of thousands of its supporters in Northern constituencies that voted Leave might be alienated.
Until now, with a few twists and turns, Jeremy Corbyn has been a co-driver on the Brexit Express.
Indeed, he’s stood in the tradition of hugh Gaitskell, the Labour leader who more than half a century ago said that joining the Common Market would mark the end of 1,000 years of English history.
If he wants to have any chance of becoming prime minister, the perpetually anti-Brussels Jeremy Corbyn must urgently spell out with crystal clarity how he wants Britain to deal with those European ‘terrors of the earth’.