Political cross dressing that would make Blair proud
AT FIRST sight it looks a brilliant stroke by Theresa May. Writing in the left-wing observer newspaper, she launched a direct appeal to disillusioned labour voters.
Her Tory Party, claims the Prime Minister, is the natural home for traditional labour supporters horrified by Jeremy Corbyn’s lurch to the left.
‘I want voters who may previously have thought of themselves as labour supporters to look at my government afresh,’ wrote Mrs May.
‘They will find a decent, moderate and patriotic programme that is worthy of their support.’
How fascinating. How audacious. and how very revealing.
First and foremost, this latest manoeuvre is an indication that Mrs May is preparing for the possibility of having to fight an emergency general election in just a few weeks’ time.
The Prime Minister still thinks she is on the verge of striking a Brexit deal with Brussels. This could, believes Mrs May, be in place in time for the European summit being held in nine days, although it may have to wait until november.
However, the Prime Minister’s great fear is that her master plan will then be voted down in the House of Commons by a combination of Jeremy Corbyn’s labour Party, nicola Sturgeon’s SnP and Tory Brexiteers who are unwilling to compromise in their pursuit of a clean break from the EU.
Were that to happen, I understand from a senior source within number 10 that Mrs May intends to break the constitutional deadlock by calling a general election.
This is why she is aiming to portray herself as Mrs Moderate – the only sensible alternative between Jeremy Corbyn’s hard-left labour Party and the hard Brexiteers in her own party.
It is a strategy, as Mrs May well knows, which was used brilliantly by Tony Blair against John Major’s failing Tories in 1997.
Blair deliberately positioned new labour as the halfway house between the rancid Tory Right on one side and the unions and labour’s hard-left on the other.
He won with a mammoth majority of 179 seats – and labour stayed in power for the following 13 years.
Mrs May is hoping that she can repeat the Blairite triumph, and I can see why. But there are large dangers.
There is always the chance that labour voters tempted by the ersatz socialism on offer from Mrs May will decide that they prefer the real thing offered by John McDonnell and Jeremy Corbyn. However, an even greater risk is that in her desperation to win over labour supporters she alienates traditional Conservative voters.
In her observer article yesterday, Mrs May repeated the promise made in her party conference speech last week to end austerity. Though she did not say so, that will inevitably have to be paid for by higher taxation – anathema to the hard-pressed Tory voters of middle England.
HER calculation is that these hardline Tories have no one else to vote for, and that rather than abstain or switch allegiance to parties such as Ukip they will suck their teeth and conclude that anything is better than Corbyn.
This is exactly the same judgment made by Tony Blair when he mounted his audacious bid for middle- class votes, shifting his party’s focus from its traditional working- class base. Blair’s adoption of the centre ground was so effective that following the election he was able to add two Tory defectors to the enormous numbers crowding labour’s benches, with Peter Temple-Morris and Shaun Woodward crossing the floor within two years.
How our Prime Minister would love a labour MP to come over to the Tory side. Former shadow cabinet minister Chuka Umunna, who has signalled his opposition to Corbyn, is one potential Conservative target. There is talk he may even be offered a Cabinet job as an inducement, though his strong opposition to Brexit means he may decide to stay put for now.
These are strange times indeed. While the Tory leader copies Blair, in the labour Party the triple election winner is regarded as a pariah. on the edge of what may yet be the third general election in three years, we have entered a period of political cross-dressing.