Forget caps Eddie, you just need the right quality
Eddie Jones has a theory, which he believes is backed by history and statistical evidence. The problem is that, number one, it isn’t, and number two, if it was, it would not be a premise that would be of great benefit to england, or the players charged with winning the World Cup this time next year.
Jones has a fixed idea of the team that will lift the Webb ellis Cup in Yokohama on november 2, 2019. The average age will be 28, the average number of caps will be 50 and the starting XV will have around 800 appearances between them. Unfortunately, right now, that team isn’t england. it’s new Zealand. And it is hard to see how it can be england with 12 months and 11 games to go.
The starting line-up on saturday against the All Blacks contained 440 caps. even if Jones played each one of those players in every game between now and the opening fixture with Tonga on september 22, england would have little more than 600 appearances. He has experienced players to come back but, despite Jones’ insistence, they are unlikely to make up the shortfall and it only needs one unfortunate injury — to dylan Hartley, say — and his calculation loses in the region of 60 caps. Hartley has 95 caps, his understudy Jamie George has 30.
Jones (right) is not advancing an exact science. That an inexperienced england team got within a point of the All Blacks — and would have won if the match had been played in the days before outcomes were decided remotely — shows youth does not have to be an insurmountable obstacle.
Jones believes new Zealand got over the line for the simple reason they had more experience. it was not the only explanation, he said, but it was a big part and watching the world’s no 1 team chip away at a 15-point deficit, there was an inescapable feeling that this was rugby being played at a smarter, more knowing level.
Calling on all their experience — the 800 caps that obsess Jones — they adapted their tactics, destroyed england at the lineouts and took back control.
england were left to rue the influence of video review in denying the brilliant sam Underhill the winning try and to accentuate the positives.
‘i’ve played in tougher games,’ insisted Jonny May. ‘People didn’t give us a chance but i’m convinced we’ve got more growth in us between now and the World Cup than new Zealand have in them. They’ve been together a lot longer, we’re missing some players and we’re only going to gain. if we were playing them next week, we’d do it slightly differently, because we would have learned from this.
‘That’s the process. Play, reflect, learn. it’s been a tough year. People might have thought our bubble had popped but we’ve come through it and we’re stronger for it and we’re not as far off as people think.’
Are Jones’ numbers correct? it is pointless looking back to before the professional era, so comparisons only become relevant from 1999. And while the average Rugby World Cup-winning team in that period have 744 caps, the figure is skewed by the 996 owned by new Zealand in 2015. Prior to that, in the professional era, the average was 681.
Yes, it has been growing — from Australia’s 633 in 1999 to south Africa’s 683 in 2007 and new Zealand’s 724 in 2011 — but england won the World Cup with 686 in 2003. it is not unfeasible Jones’ england could be in that ball park.
Part of the complication is that experience has been jettisoned, Mike Brown joining James Haskell and dan Cole on the outside. injuries are also an issue. ‘With Mako and Billy Vunipola back we immediately pick up 150 caps,’ argued Jones, making 51 and 36 come to something more than 87.
‘immeasurably we’re taking steps forward,’ said Jones. ‘We’ve got 400 caps out there. To win a World Cup you need 800 caps, those things don’t lie. on that performance, we’re not far away. it’s feasible we can get 800 on the field and with a number of variations we’ll be close to it, at least in the money.
‘Test match rugby is about experience and doing the right things at the right times. There were a couple of times when we could have done better and Test matches teach you that. if you are prepared to play a certain way against the All Blacks and you can do that very well, you can make them uncomfortable.
‘But when they’re not playing well they hang in there, they stay in the fight, they’re prepared to play a little differently to win and that makes them a wonderful team.’
isn’t that the most significant ingredient of all? More than caps, more than birthdays. What Jones needs to find by next autumn is something approaching a wonderful team. Without one of them, nobody beats new Zealand.