GLORY OR REGRET
England have been dynamic, brilliant at the breakdown and have scored most tries. But those duff 20 minutes in Cardiff mean tonight is either...
HERE IS the stark equation for England today: victory and glory, or victory and regret. They should beat Scotland — they will beat Scotland — but it might all be too late.
The status of this Calcutta Cup showdown is on a knife-edge. By the time it kicks off, it will have an after-the-Lord-Mayor’s-Show feel to it or it will loom as a fitting and dramatic climax to this Guinness Six Nations.
The trophy could already have been claimed by Wales in Cardiff, or it could be back within reach.
These are the fine margins between being the best or having to settle for being best of the rest.
The uncomfortable truth for England this evening is that, because of one duff half of rugby in this whole campaign, their destiny is out of their hands.
At 5pm, when the whistle goes and these old foes start smashing into each other, there could be an almighty party going on 150 miles to the west along the M4. A Welsh victory over Ireland would bring Warren Gatland another Grand Slam and deny Eddie Jones and his men a third title in the space of four largely productive years.
Within two hours, the Calcutta Cup is bound to be back in English hands, but that won’t be sufficient. They had sets their sights higher and appeared to be on course for another European conquest until the wheels fell off the thundering chariot at the Principality Stadium three weeks ago.
Jamie George was honest enough yesterday to cut through all the talk about just focusing on this game, saying: ‘ We’d be disappointed, especially after the way we started (beating Ireland in Dublin). That was a great start to the tournament, but you can’t afford to perform like we did in those 20 minutes against Wales.’
Of course, all English hope is not lost. Ireland are in menacing mode after taking time to recover from being blasted into submission by Jones’s team in round one.
The win over France suggested they have regained confidence and cohesion. Any England players who choose to watch some of the match in Cardiff will expect to see the visitors make Wales fight tooth and nail for the right to clinch another clean sweep.
In the event that Joe Schmidt’s 2018 champions stop the Slam, England are destined to finish top of the table. The Calcutta Cup is not an utter formality, as the dismissal of Italy was last weekend. But Scotland are 10-1 with the bookmakers for a reason. Two years ago, England won 61-21.
Gregor Townsend’s team have been poor in this championship. They have emphatically failed to justify their trumped-up billing. In some quarters they were touted as title contenders, but they have fallen a long way short of such expectations in losing three of their four fixtures.
They have been hammered by injuries, but that is not the only factor. Captain Stuart McInally did not attempt to hide from an uncomfortable truth when he said: ‘We have underperformed and we are desperate to put in a good performance, for ourselves and for the whole of Scotland.’
It is remarkable to think the Scots beat their old enemy at Murrayfield last year, yet few give them the faintest hope of repeating the feat at Twickenham for the first time since 1983.
The return of Hamish Watson to the starting XV after his stunning cameo against Wales last Saturday is a reminder of how that Edinburgh game unfolded. He and John Barclay dominated the breakdown to stun England and condemn them to the first defeat of a five-Test losing run.
So much has changed since, mostly within the England set-up. First and foremost, the rise of Tom Curry as a rookie sensation at openside, aided by Mark Wilson at No 6, has transformed fortunes at the ruck. It has gone from being an area of weakness to an area of supreme efficiency.
They are no longer being undermined by conceding endless turnovers and penalties in a desperate scramble to compete against canny opposition jackal masters.
In that regard, John Mitchell has made a significant impact since
being hired as an assistant coach last September. He was nominally appointed to replace Paul Gustard as defence guru, but his remit is far broader and his technical work with England’s back-rowers has paid off handsomely.
This match should serve as a timely showcase of how much progress has been made. England are more dynamic than they were a year ago. There has been a changing of the guard and also greater clarity in their attacking game, so much so that they have scored 19 tries in four matches — 10 more than Wales and six more than Ireland.
And yet, the Welsh are the ones who can claim the ultimate prize. They outsmarted England in Cardiff. They were more shrewd and streetwise, handing their neighbours a lesson about applying and absorbing pressure which must be heeded in this World Cup year.
That one duff half is why Jones and his men don’t have their destiny in their hands. Victory and glory, or victory and regret?
The equation for England is controlled by Wales.