PLAIN SAILING
If England weather the early storm this should be...
ThE World Cup starts in earnest for England this morning and the nerves will be jangling for the team and fans — but I firmly believe they will win with something to spare.
If they concentrate on weathering an early storm and retain their discipline, they will win by plenty because this is not a great Argentina side.
The Pumas will be out of contention if they lose so will throw everything at England in the first 20 minutes. Even if it’s not a vintage team they are always patriotic and passionate. It will be very physical and intense but weather that storm and keep 15 men on the field and life should be close to plain sailing.
The Pumas will know that some England players can be fiery and that officialdom is a little jittery over what constitutes a legal tackle and they will play on that.
Expect them to test Joe Marler’s patience in the hope of a reaction, ditto Maro Itoje and Kyle Sinckler, and to test Owen Farrell’s tackling technique. That is not a criticism. Any side playing England towards the business end of this World Cup would do the same. The only major danger tactically for this England side lies in the Pumas’ clever use of the rolling maul, which they used to good effect against Tonga when their hooker Julian Montoya helped himself to two tries from such moves.
These mauls can be very difficult to defend and not only can they result in you coughing up seven points, they often force a yellow card from the defending team so England need to beware, be disciplined in defence and make sure they play little of the game in their own 22.
Don’t give penalties away, not even on the halfway line, because with nothing to lose the Pumas will go for broke and look to pump kicks right into the corners to set up the driving maul.
Other than that I envisage little danger unless Argentina have been keeping their powder very dry. The flair we saw in 2007 and 2015 has gone out of their game. They have become much more predictable. I am a big admirer of the Pumas and what they have achieved but they are going through a difficult transitional period.
They have shot themselves in the foot by leaving Juan Imhoff, Santiago Cordero and Facundo Isa in France. You do not deserve success at World Cups if you leave some of your best players out for any reason other than ability.
Argentina have looked less menacing since insisting on selecting only players who play for the Jaguares. Strangely they have pulled in a couple from France’s Top 14 for this World Cup but not the big names. It doesn’t make sense.
The shape of their team is changing in other ways. Their long-time skipper Gus Creevy, one of the world’s best hookers in his pomp, is no longer first choice and points machine Nicolas Sanchez is surplus to requirements.
They will be a step or two up from Tonga and the USA but England should welcome that. If they concentrate on producing their A- game they should win with plenty to spare as they have too much pace, power and variety. Argentina are there for the taking.
England have a really settled look and hitting the ground running today and against France next week is important. These are big games and victory in both would set up a quarter- final against Australia, which on balance I would prefer to Wales, who have the wind in their sails.
I would expect England to take control against the Pumas pack and I’ve got a feeling this will be the match that Anthony Watson announces himself to the wider rugby world. Two achilles tendons operations took a lot of getting back from and it’s taken time but I have seen enough flashes of quality in recent weeks to believe he is back to his best.
The ball hasn’t quite run his way yet but from the way he has been leaping for and taking high balls and twisting and turning in tight spaces I would say he is looking very sharp. The tries could come in a rush for Watson when he really starts motoring. DUrING the first week, the hot topic was tackling — and specifically tackling heights.
In the second week it has been the apparently slippery ball caused by the heat and humidity, both in indoor arenas and outdoors.
The error count — dropped passes, spilt offloads, dropped kicks — has been unusually high in most matches, with even sides such as New Zealand spilling the ball more than usual.
It is an issue, but good players and teams adapt. Japan’s handling, other than when affected by nerves in the early stages of their opening game, has still been immaculate because they are used to playing in such conditions.
It was notable on Thursday that Fiji, who learn their rugby in hot, humid and often rainy conditions, returned to something like their best in difficult wet conditions against Georgia.
England, with Eddie Jones more aware than most of the conditions after his time in Japan, held two long camps in Treviso this summer — and not because England love the heat or even the Italian ambience. They went because it gets very humid in that part of Italy and Eddie wanted his side totally at home in such conditions. And so far so good.
Some players seem to have been caught by surprise but there are still a couple of quick fixes to help. Firstly shorten the length of pass, as you would in heavy rain, and then take extra care to give that pass sympathetically.
The most important issue though is not the actual passing but players coughing up the slippery ball in contact. Protect the ball going into contact.