ONLY ENGLAND CAN BEAT THE ALL BLACKS
SIR CLIVE WOODWARD’S RUGBY WORLD CUP ANALYSIS:
JAPAN
The hosts have covered themselves in glory with their wonderful, high-tempo game. Their two scrum-halves, Yutaka Nagare and Fumiaki Tanaka, have been brilliant — small guys taking on and beating the giants. Wing Kotaro Matsushima is world-class and hooker Shota horie is one of the best in the tournament. Japan would make history and cause a rugby sensation if they could reach the last eight, but my gut feeling is Scotland will do just enough.
SCOTLAND
INEXPLICABLY poor against Ireland and the loss of Hamish Watson was huge, but much improved when putting Samoa away with a bonus point win. Assuming they do the same against Russia, it will be crunch time against Japan when, even if they win, they must prevent the hosts from scoring a bonus point. I’m tipping the Scots to pull this off and reach the quarter-finals but it will be a nail-biter. They won’t beat New Zealand if they meet in the knockout stage.
IRELAND
VerY good against Scotland, middling against Japan, workmanlike against russia. The Irish need to sweep into the quarter-finals off the back of a top-rate performance against Samoa. They need Johnny Sexton to start firing and for their outside backs to rediscover their best attacking form. Ireland are heading for a quarter-final against the Boks or New Zealand, both of whom they defeated last year. They will fear neither, but I don’t see them reaching the semi-finals for the first time.
NEW ZEALAND
UNQUESTIONABLY the favourites — in fact, the only team I can see beating them is England. All their traditional qualities have been to the fore: pace, high tempo, brilliant handling under pressure, the ability to absorb a team’s best shots and then counter-attack 90 yards to score. That opening win against the Boks decided the pool there and then and they will be looking to finish with a full-bore performance against a disappointing Italy.
SOUTH AFRICA
Dangerous floaters. They played pretty well against New Zealand but were undone by five minutes of All Blacks brilliance and didn’t trust their backs enough. In Cheslin Kolbe, they have one of the most stunning attacking players on the planet. They must use him more. Their massive pack can batter most teams but, against the very best opponents, South Africa must use all the resources at their disposal.
FRANCE
BRILLIANT for 40 minutes against Argentina, then that old weakness — a lack of full 80-minute fitness — kicked in. They were hanging on against a poor Pumas team and nearly tripped up against Tonga. France have to find a way of maintaining the tempo. Their youngsters Antoine Dupont, Damian Penaud and Romain Ntamack can do it but the pack still struggle. The game has become too fast for the likes of Louis Picamoles. I don’t see them beating Australia or Wales.
AUSTRALIA
MADe hard work of beating Fiji first up and were all over the place in the first half against Wales. Showed enough quality and class in the second half against the Welsh, though, to remind everybody how good they can be. Will qualify easily enough and face France or england. They can never be discounted because they can accumulate points quickly, but their forwards are not dominant and their goal-kicking has not been convincing.
WALES
SHAPING up very nicely and, although not technically through yet, they will surely progress as pool winners and meet France or England. Jonathan Davies is beginning to tick in the centre, Gareth Davies looks one of the best scrum-halves in the world, Dan Biggar and Rhys Patchell are going well at No 10 and Justin Tipuric is having a standout tournament. Must keep their foot on the gas against Fiji on Wednesday — the Pacific islanders are looking for an upset.