A morale boost for Boris, but victory’s STILL far from certain
Despite all the fanfare, Nigel Farage’s announcement that the Brexit party will not stand in the 317 seats won by the Conservatives at the last election is less of a concession than he would like you to think.
Given the state of the polls, with the Conservatives ahead and the Brexit party suffering a decline, the Government would expect to hold almost all these constituencies anyway.
the problem for the tories is that this doesn’t amount to the majority needed by the prime Minister to pass his Brexit deal.
to achieve this, they need to take seats currently held by the Labour party, those which the Brexit party will still contest.
And while the precise figures are in dispute, the Brexit party is expected to take around two votes from the Conservatives for every one vote it takes off Labour, making it tougher for the tories to make gains in these areas. this is especially concerning for the tories given that many of their key targets are seats where a majority voted for Brexit, such as those in Wales or the Midlands. With the Brexit vote split in those areas, that remains an uphill struggle.
so despite yesterday’s agreement, on paper nothing very much has changed. the main problem faced by the Conservatives before Farage’s announcement – that the Brexit vote risks being split in target seats – still exists.
But elections aren’t fought on paper, and there are several ways this new alliance could impact on the final result. For while Farage’s announcement doesn’t really help the tories make advances, it does make their defensive task easier.
More than two thirds of the most marginal Conservative-held seats are places where a majority voted for Brexit. tory Mps sitting on small majorities in these areas will be relieved. in southampton, itchen, for example, tory Mp Royston smith is sitting on a majority of 31 votes in a constituency that voted 60 per cent for Leave. He would have been a prime target for the Brexit party. Without that threat in those constituencies, the tories should be able to shift some resources away from defending constituencies they currently hold to targeting Labour seats.
the tories, however, will reap these benefits only in Leave-voting seats because Farage’s announcement will matter less in constituencies where the Conservatives are facing a Liberal Democrat challenge. these largely Remain-voting seats in the south West tend not to have been targets for the Brexit party anyway.
putting technicalities to one side for a moment, perhaps the most significant effect of yesterday’s announcement is on what electoral strategists call ‘optics’.
Yesterday, Farage presented his party’s stance as a Leave Alliance – albeit a somewhat one-sided partnership. this is certainly how the various Remain supporting parties will brand it, in an attempt to undermine support among Conservative Remainers who might be persuaded that its creation shows the Conservatives are identical to the Brexit party.
indeed, within a matter of hours of Farage’s speech, Liberal Democrat leader Jo swinson tweeted that ‘the Conservative party are the Brexit party now’.
Yet i am not convinced that everyone will buy into the idea that this new electoral pact is a great victory for Farage. in fact, i wouldn’t be surprised if some Brexit party voters regard Farage’s message yesterday as a tacit endorsement of the Conservatives – and vote accordingly.
After all, if Farage really thinks that the prime Minister’s deal is unpalatable why would he now allow the Conservative candidates to run unchallenged in half the country?
Whatever the truth of it, yesterday’s announcement was no gamechanger. it is simply that the chances of a Conservative majority did increase ever so slightly.
‘Impact on the final result’