UK EXPERTS: THERE IS NO CURE
Virus has a death rate comparable to Spanish Flu pandemic
SCIENTISTS yesterday warned there is no treatment for the mysterious new virus blighting China – saying no one has immunity and it has a death rate comparable to the Spanish Flu outbreak of 1918.
Around one in 50 people with severe cases of the ‘novel coronavirus’ have died and experts fear it may have already reached the UK.
It came as Britain was accused of not doing enough to screen people arriving from infection-hit Wuhan – with Heathrow officials simply handing out one-page leaflets to passengers.
By contrast, countries including the US, Malaysia and Singapore have been carrying out rigorous health screening.
Professor Neil Ferguson, of Imperial College London, warned ‘n-cov’ – thought to be transmitted by coughing – is twice as deadly as a typical seasonal flu outbreak. He said the number of deaths worldwide, reported as of January 18, had reached nine out of the 460 cases in hospital – around one in fifty or 2 per cent.
This is twice as lethal as a typical seasonal flu outbreak. But unlike flu there is no immunity in the population as it is a new virus, and there are no preventative measures as yet such as vaccines.
Sufferers must simply wait for their body to clear it from their system.
Yesterday’s figures showed there were now 547 cases of n-cov with 17 deaths.
Professor Ferguson said: ‘We worry about pandemics because novel viruses can spread much faster through the population and viruses will circulate all the time, because we have no immunity to them.
‘Secondly, to give you an indication, most seasonal flu viruses have a case fatality rate of less than one in 1,000 people.
‘Here we’re talking about a virus where we don’t understand fully the severity spectrum, but it’s possible the case fatality rate could be as high as 2 per cent.’ He added: ‘Two per cent case fatality rate is comparable to the Spanish Flu pandemic in 1918. So it is a significant concern globally.’
Professor Ferguson said he ‘could not rule out that possibility’ the virus was already in the UK.
But he pointed out Britain was not a major destination for travellers from Wuhan, where the virus is believed to have originated.
He said: ‘Border screening, and in this case, in the UK, alerting the health system is not 100 per cent foolproof – there could be a mild case. So I would say it was unlikely, but can’t be completely sure.’
Professor Ferguson said that the disease had a wide spectrum as to the severity of symptoms, from mild to severe.
He told a news conference in London that he estimated there were around probably around 4,000 cases in China. But there could be as many as 10,000 people with the disease overall in the country. The lowest estimate is around 1,700.
Tests are being carried out on animals kept at the seafood market in Wuhan where most people originally became infected.
The disease is thought to have jumped the species barrier from an animal to a human, but exactly what kind of animal is not known. Other coronaviruses also began as viruses affecting animals such as Middle East Respiratory Syndrome, which started in bats before transferring to camels.
The Department of Health and Social Care has announced enhanced monitoring measures for flights arriving from Wuhan – though there was little sign of these on passengers yesterday.
However, screening is not foolproof and would not necessarily stop the virus entering the UK.
Professor Ferguson said: ‘Many countries have introduced varying degrees of border screening, all the way from sensing temperature to informing people of what they should do if they’re ill if they’ve come from those countries. It has a degree of effectiveness, but it should not be seen as a panacea.’
David Heymann, professor of infectious disease epidemiology at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, who advises the World Health Organisation ( WHO), said: ‘What’s important to remember is that borders can’t stop diseases entering countries. If you screen everybody’s temperatures coming off a flight, you might miss people in the incubation period, or people who have had a fever but then taken an aspirin.
‘What’s important is that people know where to go if they feel unwell and how to report it.’
Prof Heymann said it was still ‘very early in this outbreak’ and there was a lot yet to be understood about how the virus was behaving. ‘ We don’t exactly know whether it transmits face to face, such as through a cough, or if it is transmitted by other body parts,’ he said.
He said the virus appeared to be making older people ill who have other illnesses as well, such as diabetes.
There is one case of a teenager being infected, but no children.