AND THEY’RE VIRTUALLY OFF!
Yes, the Grand National is ON tomorrow – thanks to computer wizardry and bookies’ data, millions will watch it (and bet on it) like the real thing. So could this be the answer to our corona-hit sporting summer?
FORTY runners and riders will line up tomorrow for the biggest and most anticipated race of the jumps season – but, with horseracing shut down, the venue will be cyberspace not Aintree.
Using state- of-the-art computer-generated imagery, complex mathematical algorithms and a detailed analysis of racing form, boffins and racing experts have been working round the clock to deliver the Virtual Grand National.
Inspired Entertainment, the company which delivers virtual reality racing for Britain’s betting shops, is behind the project and has compiled a list of runners from the original entries headed by favourite Tiger Roll, who should have been staging an historic bid to become the first horse to win the world’s most watched steeplechase for the third year running.
The work involved was extraordinary – around three man years have been spent by the team at Inspired putting it together. Trainers, jockeys, commentators and tipsters have funnelled their expertise into powerful computers to make it the most accurate possible simulation.
With a 5.15pm start time – the same as the real thing – in a half-hour programme on ITV starting at 5pm, the broadcasters are hopeful millions will tune in for a welcome distraction in these uncertain times to watch horses jump 30 virtual fences over four and a quarter miles.
Bookies are also taking bets – to a maximum of £10 each way – with any profits they make going to NHS Charities. So here’s your guide to the only (virtual) sporting show in town.
HOW DOES IT WORK?
Information about the horses is fed into computer software which then determines their potential finishing positions.
A horse’s chances are based on factors including past performances, the horse’s current form, the weight the horse has to carry, and their previous efforts on the ‘Good’ ground the Virtual Grand National is being run on.
As a rough guide, Tiger Roll, the 5-1 favourite, has a theoretical 16 per cent chance of winning, whereas one of the 100-1 shots has a one per cent chance.
Think of a lottery scenario. Imagine 100 balls in a bucket. If 16 of them represent Tiger Roll, there is more chance his name will be pulled out but there is still a chance, albeit a lesser one, that the one ball representing the 100-1 shot will be selected.
IS THERE A DIFFERENT RESULT EVERY TIME THE RACE IS RUN?
Yes. Every running could throw up a different outcome with all 40 runners in with a chance – but mathematics tells us that those with the greater probability of winning will always have the greater chance.
CAN ANY HORSE FALL?
As always with the Grand National, there is a level of unpredictability which makes it so fascinating. There is an element of artificial intelligence, with the algorithms influencing how the horses move around the course, how they jump fences and how they interact with each other.
HAS THIS RACE ALREADY BEEN RUN?
Yes, because of the time it takes to fit the graphics around the computer-generated result. The outcome is a fiercely guarded secret in a process which has been agreed by the UK Gambling Commission. Less than 20 people are aware of the result
and all have had to sign Non-Disclosure Agreements.
HOW ACCURATE HAS IT BEEN IN THE PAST?
Remarkably accurate. In the first running in 2017, the Virtual Grand National winner Cause of Causes finished second in the real thing to One For Arthur. In 2018, Tiger Roll won both ‘races’ while the software correctly predicted six of the 12 finishers. Last year Tiger Roll was second in the virtual race before winning the real thing, while virtual winner Rathvinden came third in the actual race.
HOW DOES THE BETTING WORK?
You can place bets with Britain’s biggest betting operators but bookmakers realise that it would be an own goal if they were to profit from the race in such difficult times. So any profits made by bookies will be donated to NHS Charities Together, the umbrella organisation which represents over 140 NHS charities. Collectively, these charities contribute £1million a day to support the work of our NHS.
Bets will be limited to a maximum of either £10 on a horse to win or £10 each-way (which means you collect winnings if your horse finishes anywhere in the top five, but £10 each-way will cost you a stake of £20), a recognition that gambling must be responsible when there is a connection to the NHS. All bookmakers have agreed that they will offer the same odds per horse with no firm trying to gain a commercial advantage.
HOW MANY VIEWERS WILL TUNE IN?
ITV have no idea. This is the fourth running of the Virtual Grand National – it has previously been shown on ITV4 on the Friday evening before the real thing to whet the appetite of racing fans.
But with sport shut down, ITV have moved the race to a primetime slot on its main channel.
Just under ten million viewers tuned in for the real Grand National in 2019 and with so many forms of entertainment unavailable, it would come as no surprise if viewing figures for the Virtual Grand National were significant.
HOW LONG DID IT TAKE TO CREATE?
The Virtual race involved around 18 months of development, starting with the filming of the famous Aintree racecourse using drone cameras.
Details that have been added to make the experience more realistic include using CGI to ensure that the birch on the fences breaks apart like the real thing, with CGI workers then jogging on to the track to patch up fences for lap two just as you would see in the real race.
Real-life elements have also been added – such as dirt being thrown up, CGI crowds and ambulances tracking the field to make the images even more realistic.
An algorithm was also developed which takes into account how horses run round corners, tire and how the field reacts should a horse fall at a jump.