Roasting in 40C summers ‘normal by end of century’

THE recent hot spell might have been too much for some – but experts say it could be a foretaste of summers to come.

Heatwaves of 40C (104F) will be normal every few years by the end of the century if we don’t curb our greenhouse emissions, scientists at the Met Office say.

The UK’s highest temperature on record came during last year’s severe heatwave – 38.7C (102F) in Cambridge in July.

Without the influence of humans, British temperatures might not have hit 40C until thousands of years from now.

But with high pollution levels, Met Office models show days of extreme temperatures could be possible every three and a half years on average. And even with medium emissions, it would happen around every 15 years.

The predictions follow a study last year that suggested London’s climate could be like that of Barcelona by 2050.

Dr Nikolaos Christidis, who led the latest study at the Met Office’s Hadley Centre in Exeter, said: ‘Climate change has already influenced the likelihood of temperature extremes in the UK.

‘The chances of seeing 40C days in the UK could be as much as ten times more likely in the current climate than under a natural climate unaffected by human influence.’

He continued: ‘The likelihood of exceeding 40C anywhere in the UK in a given year has also been rapidly increasing – and, without curbing of greenhouse gas emissions, such extremes could be taking place every few years in the climate of 2100.’ Summers with daily maximum temperatures exceeding 35C currently happen once every five years on average, but could come almost every other year by 2100 if high emissions continue around the world.

Hot spells are most likely in the South East of England.

There are areas in the north of the UK where it is very rare for temperatures to reach 30C (86F). But by 2100, they may be that warm at least once a decade, according to the study published in the journal Nature Communications.

The Met Office team used temperatures from new measurements of kilometre-square ‘grids’ across the UK.

Using these HadUK-Grid figures and 16 global climate

‘London could be like Barcelona’

models, they were able to make highly precise local predictions of future hot spells.

The researchers stressed there is still hope for a cooler planet than these ‘worst-case’ forecasts. If global emissions are reduced in line with the 2016 Paris climate agreement, they say, the rises are likely to be far less extreme.

Dr Mark McCarthy, a co-author of the study and head of the Met Office National Climate Information Centre, said: ‘In some parts of the South East, between 1960 and 2019, the hottest days of the year have already increased by 1C each decade, showing the UK is already on a warming trend when it comes to heat extremes.’