Will second surge of virus lead to a winter lockdown?

MINISTERS have been told to prepare for a surge in coronavirus cases this winter that could trigger a second national lockdown.

The Government’s scientific advisers now have ‘strong’ evidence that the virus flourishes at an optimal temperature of around 4C (39F).

They say this, combined with annual pressures on the NHS caused by seasonal flu, means the UK is heading for a ‘difficult winter’.

Last night, one senior official said: ‘We can get away with a lot at the moment because it is summer.

‘It is really important that people get ready for the challenges that winter will undoubtedly bring.’

Ministers are aiming to manage any resurgence of the virus through local lockdowns, such as the one imposed in Leicester last week.

But a senior official said: ‘If the overall numbers increase, then I would expect to have to reimpose some national measures.’

The official added that the Government’s much-maligned test and trace strategy must be working ‘ absolutely faultlessly’ by the autumn.

Another lockdown would have devastating economic consequences. It could also hamper Boris Johnson’s plans for all children to return to school although experts on the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) have stressed reopening schools should be a ‘priority’.

Officials said that it is ‘significant’ that the city of Melbourne in Australia, where it is currently winter, had to impose a second lockdown on its five million residents this week.

The virus survives longer at colder temperatures and people are more likely to gather indoors during winter, which increases the risk of transmission. Yesterday, Sage published figures showing the coronavirus outbreak is still shrinking in the UK, but only very slowly. The reproduction rate – the average number of people each Covid- 19 patient infects – is between 0.7 and 0.9 as a whole for the UK, meaning it hasn’t changed in almost two months.

However, the R rate for England is between 0.8 and 1, up from between 0.8 and 0.9 last week.

Office for National Statistics data shows about 14,000 people in England currently have the virus.

But scientists say they would like to push the number of new infections much lower before the winter to increase the UK’s ability to cope with a second wave.

Professor James Naismith, from the University of Oxford, said: ‘These numbers also tell us that we are unlikely to eliminate the virus from the UK before the winter. In any event, the virus has become global. Without a vaccine, we have to plan for its presence.’

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‘Get ready for challenges’