Third of GCSEs to get top grades
U-turn means 1.5m could be equivalent to old-style A/A*
ALMOST one in three GCSE pupils could get top marks today following the exam U-turn fiasco.
The proportion with a grade 7 or higher – the equivalent of an old A/A* – is set to rise by almost 30 per cent due to the switch to teacher assessments.
This could mean 1.5million grade 7s, 8s and 9s awarded in England, with up to 1,000 pupils gaining a clean sweep of 9s for the first time. The surge comes after Education Secretary Gavin Williamson scrapped the controversial algorithm system for both A-level and GCSE results – and conceded teachers’ predicted grades must be used to mark pupils who could not sit their exams because of the pandemic.
It sparked chaos across universities as students originally told they had missed out on degree places frantically tried to get on to courses. A similar picture is expected in sixth forms and colleges today, with thousands more meeting A-level entry requirements than previously anticipated.
Sixth forms are calling for extra funding from the Government, with some heads planning to recruit more teachers or ask staff to teach beyond their subject expertise to allow them to honour all offers made. Others may increase class sizes or run catchup lessons for pupils whose marks do not match their actual abilities.
Professor Alan Smithers, director of the Centre for Education and Employment Research at Buckingham University, said the new system rewards pupils and schools where teachers ‘ have over- estimated’. He added: ‘It is hard on those who have done their very best to predict accurately.
‘Young people will be getting the impression that they’re good at something when they’re actually not, so they may find they get on to do A-levels in tough subjects like physics or French or maths and then may not be able to cope with them.’ In July, exams watchdog Ofqual revealed early analysis of predicted GCSE grades submitted by teachers.
It found 31.6 per cent of papers sat by 16-year- olds in England would be awarded a 7 or higher (an old A or A*) if these centre assessment grades were used. This compared to 24.7 per cent for this age group last year – a 28 per cent rise.
Under this teacher assessment system, 7.7 per cent of papers would get a top grade of 9. And 82.4 per cent would get at least a 4, equivalent to a C, Ofqual said.
At the time, the watchdog said the ‘vast majority of centres’ had ‘ submitted optimistic centre assessment grades’. These were supposed to have been standardised by the algorithm to bring them in line with previous years.
But the official results out today are expected to be broadly similar to these early Ofqual estimates.
Geoff Barton of the Association of School and College Leaders, said: ‘Schools may, understandably, have given some students the benefit of the doubt when they are on the borderline between two grades.’
John Abbott, chief executive of the Richard Huish College in Somerset, said it is likely to have ‘more kids probably on the wrong course in September’. This is because they may have been given higher grades than they would have gained in exams or fallen behind during lockdown. Gill Burbridge, principal of Leyton Sixth Form College in east London, said honouring the offers it had made to almost 2,000 pupils would be a challenge. She added: ‘It is going to maybe require staff to be more flexible in terms of being able to teach across more than one area.’
James Kewin, deputy chief executive of the Sixth Form Colleges Association, said ‘We have been pressing the Government to introduce a capital expansion fund for sixth form providers over the past couple of years, and action is now needed as a matter of urgency.’
The Department for Education said: ‘Our focus remains on working with Ofqual to ensure students receive their final GCSE, AS level and A-level results this week.’