Will we ALL be backseat drivers in the future?
Suddenly self-driving cars are a step closer... but that’s just one of the startling gear changes on the road ahead
For decades, the first maxim of learning to drive has been a simple one: ‘Never take both hands off the wheel.’ After all, disobeying it not only puts your life in danger — it could also land you with a £1,000 fine and three penalty points on your licence.
But all that might be about to change. For yesterday, the Department for Transport (DfT) published plans to allow some motorists to cruise without their hands on the wheel.
According to the Government’s proposals, drivers of vehicles with ‘ automated lane keeping systems’ (ALKS), which can keep a car inside a motorway’s lanes, could be able to travel ‘no hands’ on motorways at speeds of up to 70mph as soon as next spring.
And so after decades of engineers and sci-fi writers dreaming about the prospect of mankind being transported around by ‘driverless’ cars, it finally seems that day could soon be upon us.
In fact, as the Mail’s motoring editor, I have already driven — in controlled conditions — prototypes of these cars, including BMWs, Nissans and Jaguars.
Undoubtedly it’s impressive stuff, even if car traditionalists will no doubt mourn the loss of that joyous sense of freedom that only gripping the wheel can provide.
Yet even they will soon have to face up to the fact that change is on the horizon — and it certainly extends beyond hands- free driving. Indeed, many leading car manufacturers suspect that the motor car will see more change in the next decade than it has seen in the previous 100 years.
But what exactly can the motorists of 2030 expect? Here are my predictions . . .
A CHAT-NAV ON THE DASHBOARD
SIMILAR to today’s Alexa smart speakers, which are able to do everything from telling you tomorrow’s weather to sending a dictated email, all vehicles will essentially be voicecontrolled computers on wheels.
To travel, all you’ll need to do is tell your car where you want to go, the satnav will instruct the car to take you there, and off it will drive you without you touching the steering wheel or pedal.
Yet despite these vast technological advances, don’t expect to be able to watch a movie or play a video game while cruising. Drivers will still need to pay attention to the road in case there is an emergency — such as a last-second collision — that requires them to take control of the car.
Indeed, the DfT clarifies in its proposals that for ‘automated lane keeping’ to function it must first detect ‘if the driver is present in a driving position with their safety belt fastened and is available to take over the driving task’.
HYDROGEN MAY BEAT ELECTRIC
THE Government has already decreed that all petrol, diesel and hybrid cars will be banned from sale by 2035, or possibly even earlier.
Anticipating this, it is likely that by 2030 most vehicles will be either powered by electricity or hydrogen gas — the latter of which is contained in a fuel cell and undergoes a chemical reaction which produces electricity to power an electric motor.
Given it is very energy efficient, many manufacturers favour the hydrogen route and some — such as Hyundai and Toyota — already have a limited number of vehicles in production.
DRIVER, YOU ARE THE WEAKEST LINK
IT IS often said that the most dangerous part of any car is the nut behind the steering wheel — and many believe that autonomous vehicles, which are not prone to human error, will help to reduce the number of road traffic accidents.
That’s partly why many companies have started fitting their new models with ‘drive assist’ features, including those that give the steering wheel a nudge when the car strays into another lane, and adaptive cruise control, which applies the brakes and accelerator to keep your vehicle a safe distance from the one in front.
In the U.S., Tesla’s new Autopilot feature can even now change lanes without driver permission — though the software isn’t approved in Britain yet.
Because, of course, relying on computers isn’t always fail- safe. Two years ago, for instance, a woman was run over and killed by an Uber self-driving car in Arizona.
Yet despite that tragedy — which the U.S. National Transportation Safety Board later ruled was primarily caused by a distracted safety operator — as technologies are fine-tuned such accidents will become increasingly scarce, especially if drivers are required to monitor the road ahead at all times.
AGE OF THE POP-UP STEERING WHEEL
‘ FORM follows function’ is a famous mantra of car designers. And the advent of the electric and driverless car offers untold design opportunities.
electric vehicles, for example, don’t need a conventional engine up front, while ‘driverless’ vehicles could have a steering wheel that can be stowed away to pop out when needed.
In the hope that cars will one day double up as cruising meeting rooms, Aston Martin has already produced a prototype model without a steering wheel and seats facing towards one another. But given that in 2030 drivers will still need to keep their eyes on the road, I doubt such designs will be approved any time soon. Far more likely are designs based on utilitarian pods. Indeed, earlier this year I became one of the first people in the world to experience the new fully electric, selfdriving ‘pod’ car, due to hit British roads next year. Developed jointly between the UK’s biggest car-maker, Jaguar Land rover, and Warwick University, the ‘ robo- car’ resembled neither a coupe, saloon or 4x4, but a small bus or van.
TAXING TIMES ARE COMING . . .
THE Government currently receives around £40 billion a year from motorists in the form of fuel duty and vehicle excise duty. And as petrol and diesel cars are replaced by zero- emissions vehicles, the Government will need to get its revenue from somewhere.
experts predict this will lead Whitehall to introduce some type of ‘pay as you drive’ road tax to re-fill empty revenue coffers.
It’s all too easy to imagine how the increasing number of gantries housing cameras — currently used to read registration plates — could be easily adapted to track cars and charge them by the mile at peak and off-peak rates, with invoices arriving through your letterbox just like your utility bills.
. . . BUT THE SPEED CAMERA IS GOING
BY 2030 it is unlikely that fully autonomous cars and humandrive vehicles will be able to mix on the same road — initially for safety if nothing else.
So expect dedicated lanes, just like cycle lanes.
But if there are entire roads
dedicated to driverless cars, don’t expect to see speed cameras on them. They simply won’t be needed. After all, the vehicles will be constantly tracked and any speeding infringements will be flagged on a central system — that’s if the cars don’t have in-built speed limits in the first place.
BRIGHT FUTURE FOR THE ELDERLY
AT THE moment, many elderly drivers with ailments such as diabetes and poor eyesight are forced to give up their licences.
Yet with the rise of the driverless car, and its reduced passenger involvement, many former drivers will hope that a lower threshold would allow them to get back on the road.
Indeed, AA president edmund King tells me that ‘a driverless car would be a godsend’ for his own mother, who was forced to quit driving recently and misses the sense of independence it provided.
SAVE YOURSELF A WEEK A YEAR
GIVEN self- driving cars are able to communicate with each other and determine exactly where others are, they are far more efficient than human drivers at navigating congestion.
In fact, BMW predicts that when all cars on the road are autonomous, drivers in London will spend as many as five whole days — or a working week — less in traffic a year.
BUT THERE ARE TECHNO-POTHOLES
BRITISH spy chiefs recently warned that our super-fast 5G mobile system — central to driverless cars’ communication and navigation systems — could be hacked by ‘terrorists, hostile states, and serious criminals.’ If that were to happen with an autonomous vehicle, a hacker could easily wreak havoc.
for example, all it would take is for them to bring a few tactically placed vehicles to a halt to create a citywide standstill.
More disturbingly, hijacked driverless cars could also be deadly in the hands of a terrorist.
‘Cars could be turned into bombs on wheels that are remotely controlled by terrorists,’ a spokesman for the Institute of the Motor Industry (IMI) said. ‘You don’t have to have a terrorist on board [because they are driverless]. It’s risk-free to them.’
fortunately, Professor Jim Saker, Director of the Centre for Automotive Management at Loughborough University, has said: ‘The potential for criminal or terrorist activity utilising vehicles is yet to have been fully exploited, but the manufacturers are already looking at protecting vehicles from cyber-attack.’