TEST HOPE TO HALVE QUARANTINE
Ministers review rules as Mail campaign lifts off
AIR passengers could be tested eight days after arrival under plans to get Britain flying again.
Ministers are considering two options to open up the skies and help rescue the Covid-ravaged economy.
Under the first, passengers would be given an airport test on arrival followed by a second test a few days later. The second option is for a single test after five to eight days of self-isolation.
Insiders say the Department for Transport is ‘rattled’ by mounting Tory anger over the disastrous 14- day quarantine policy. Scores of MPs and business chiefs are supporting the Mail’s drive for Covid-19 tests to save thousands of jobs. In a boost for our campaign, Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab yesterday said a testing regime was under review but would be ‘no silver bullet’ to end quarantine.
Aviation chiefs are furious at the slow pace of progress and want a firm commitment to border tests by the end of the week.
And they say Boris Johnson is wrong to claim that a single test on arrival would detect only 7 per cent of cases.
‘Wrong end of the stick’
A SINGLE test for air passengers is under consideration in plans to cut travel quarantine times.
After months of delay, ministers are leaning toward the idea of one Covid-19 test eight days after arrival.
They are under huge pressure from aviation chiefs, business leaders and MPs to get Britain flying again and help revive the economy.
A two-stage test – on arrival and a few days later – is also being examined. The Mail understands that the single test would see travellers swabbed at an NHS testing centre or given home kits. A negative result would allow for early release from the 14-day quarantine rule.
Airlines welcomed the move but warned time is fast running out. Industry leaders want ministers to commit to testing this week, with a firm timeline for implementation.
They fear failure will wreck hopes of a rise in bookings over the autumn half term and lead to mass redundancies when the furlough scheme ends next month. Scores of Tory MPs and business chiefs are supporting the Daily Mail’s campaign for Covid-19 tests at ports and airports and save thousands of jobs.
There is growing frustration at the Prime Minister’s insistence that a single test on arrival would only detect 7 per cent of coronavirus cases.
Public health experts and industry leaders have accused Boris Johnson and Transport Secretary Grant Shapps of ignoring an official Sage science advisers’ report showing tests five days after arrival will detect 85 per cent of cases and 96 per cent after eight days. They also point out that the 7 per cent figure is based on a three-monthold Public Health England model that does not account for real-world data from 30 countries that have introduced airport testing regimes.
Ministers have stoked further confusion by failing to clarify whether the 7 per cent figure refers only to asymptomatic carriers or to all coronavirus cases.
One Tory MP said: ‘There is a growing realisation that Downing Street might have got the wrong end of the stick on all this.
‘It is possible the risk of airport testing is being dramatically over-estimated.’
Sir David Spiegelhalter, a Cambridge University professor and one of the UK’s top statisticians, yesterday described the Government’s defence of 14-day quarantine as ‘hopelessly wrong’.
He said even if only 7 per cent of cases were picked up ‘the vast majority of people will have correct negative tests’.
He described a single test on arrival as a ‘straw man’ and called for ‘proper cost-effectiveness analysis of reasonable repeat strategies’.
Senior Tories, including a number of former transport ministers, are now calling on Downing Street to carry out a review of data from countries with airport testing. One former minister told the Mail: ‘They keep referring to this outdated and questionable 7 per cent figure. I’m hoping it is a fig leaf while they work out how to do a reverse ferret.’
Sir Graham Brady, leader of the 1922 committee of backbenchers, said: ‘The variety of tests available means that there are a number ways of having far greater confidence that passengers are not carrying infection.
‘This can also be done by means of a double-test with tests taken a few days apart from each other.
‘Britain’s aviation industry is on its knees and this country has lagged behind all its main competitors in terms of getting an airport regime in place.
‘This should be done urgently while we still have a world-leading aviation industry.’
Tory MP Henry Smith, whose constituency includes Gatwick, said: ‘Boris and Shapps need to start looking at other countries which have introduced airport testing. These are big economies which we compete with. If it’s working for them, why not us?
‘No system is fool-proof. That goes for testing as well as quarantine. But I would argue that airport tests are a far more fool proof then a blanket 14-day quarantine that relies almost entirely on trusting the public to comply.’
Former Tory health secretary Lord Lansley told Times Radio the quarantine policy should be ditched in time for half term.
As many as 40 Tory MPs are preparing to rebel against 14- day quarantine ahead of a Commons debate on aviation on Thursday.
Asked if the quarantine time could be cut to eight days, Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab told the BBC’s Andrew Maar Show: ‘The direction of travel will be making sure we have the capacity and the ability for when the time is right to ease up on the self-isolation at home, and that’s certainly something that we’ll be looking at.’ But he cautioned: ‘ Let’s just be clear about this when we think about airports - there is no silver bullet in airports.’
Airlines UK, the trade body representing British carriers, is pushing for shorter five-day quarantine. Chief executive Tim Alderslade said: ‘The Government’s modelling says that if you undertake a test
on day five the percentage of asymptomatic carriers caught rises to 85 per cent.
‘So if the Government is not happy to introduce a regime based on one test on arrival, it could introduce a regime based on a day five test, but at the same time run a trial testing both on arrival and at day 5.
‘This would provide real-world data which we hope would enable the Government to move to a one test on arrival system.’
A Whitehall source told the Mail: ‘There is a live discussion in Government over the possibility of a twostep testing regime to replace quarantine. But it will depend on a number of other factors such as testing capacity.’