Hospital admissions doubling every week
THERE could be ‘far worse’ to come, health officials warned last night as figures showed that the epidemic is doubling in size each week.
The Government’s scientific advisers said the R rate – the average number of others that an infected person passes the virus on to – could now be as high as 1.4.
Health Secretary Matt Hancock warned more would die unless the virus is brought under control.
Professor Yvonne Doyle, Public Health England’s medical director, said there were ‘clear signs’ the virus is spreading ‘widely across all age groups’ but she is ‘particularly worried’ about a rise in rates of hospital admissions among older people.
Nationally, 4,322 confirmed cases of coronavirus were recorded yesterday, up from 3,395 the day before, and the highest number of positive
‘Spreading across all age groups’
tests since May 8. The Office for National Statistics said there has been a ‘marked increase’ in infections across country and through all age groups, with hospitalisations among older people growing and the death rate beginning to creep up.
Hospital admissions for coronavirus are doubling every eight days and there has been a surge in the number of patients needing intensive care.
There are currently 988 Covid-19 patients in hospital in England, up from 425 at the start of the month.
If cases continue to grow at their current rate – doubling each week – hospitalisations will soar.
Professor Doyle said: ‘We’re seeing clear signs this virus is spreading widely across all age groups and I am particularly worried by the increase in rates of admission to hospital and intensive care among older people.
‘This could be a warning of far worse things to come. We must all play our part in controlling the virus by continuing to wash our hands, wear face coverings and follow social distancing rules.’
Mr Hancock said the situation was ‘deadly serious’, warning: ‘This is a big moment for our country.
‘We are seeing an acceleration in the number of cases. And we are also seeing that the number of people hospitalised with coronavirus is doubling every eight days.’
Unless people follow the rules the virus will get ‘more out of control’, leading to more infections, hospitalisations and deaths, he said.
It takes about three weeks for a rise in cases to translate into an increase in deaths. There are signs this is happening, with a further 28 deaths reported yesterday.
After being in single figures for much of July and August, the number dying within 28 days of a positive coronavirus test has risen above 20 for the past four days.
At the peak of the pandemic more than 1,000 were dying every day.
The Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) said yesterday the R value is between 1.1 and 1.4. Last week it was estimated at between 1 and 1.2.
The group said: ‘The higher R is above 1, the faster the epidemic is growing. Sage is concerned that the current doubling time could be as quick as every seven days nationally, and potentially even faster in some areas of the country.
‘This increase on last week shows we are moving to wider-spread growth
‘We should get on with it’
in transmission at a faster rate.’ The ONS said an average of around 6,000 in England were infected every day last week, compared with 3,200 the week before.
The ONS said ‘infection rates have increased in most regions, particularly the North West and London’.
Its report also found that cases had grown fastest among children aged two to 11 after the return to school.
PHE said there were 228 care home outbreaks involving Covid last week, up from 35 the week before. There were also 110 outbreaks in schools, up from 16 the week before.
Last night a member of Sage suggested a short national lockdown may be needed within days.
Professor Andrew Hayward, of the UCL Institute of Epidemiology and Health Care, said: ‘If we’re going to do it, we should get on with it.’
He told Times Radio: ‘The challenge is that doubling every week, it can lead to it becoming out of control fairly quickly. There are still good opportunities to knock that back down, but local measures are not going to be enough to achieve that.
‘The Sage group advise on various measures and options that could be taken. One is this idea of a circuit break. Instead of waiting until things have got out of control and you have a long lockdown, try to have a shorter period.’