SO WHEN WILL THEY LISTEN?
Major study reveals Covid rules may INCREASE deaths ++ 8 in 10 with virus have NO symptoms ++ Tighter measures have NOT helped in 19 of 20 northern towns. For Britain’s sake, Mail asks...
Ministers were last night under intense pressure to rethink after experts cast fresh doubt over Covid restrictions.
Research released yesterday shows that strict lockdowns – particularly those curbing the activities of the young – are unlikely to cut deaths in the long run and may even increase them.
The Edinburgh University study examined various lockdown-style scenarios and found that while they might protect hospitals, they could also prolong the pandemic and prevent the build-up of herd immunity.
The scientists concluded that coronavirus required a different strategy from a flu epidemic – and the focus should be on shielding the elderly and vulnerable.
‘Unless a vaccine magically appears and is rolled out across the entire population in the
next six months, then shutting down society is unlikely to reduce overall deaths.’
The computer simulation expert added: ‘Lockdowns essentially just postpone these deaths and prevent immunity building up ... in some cases resulting in more deaths long term.
‘The way out of any epidemic is herd immunity, which is when enough people in the population are infected that the virus can’t spread.
‘We need to focus on protecting older people who are going to be affected by coronavirus, not people who aren’t.’
The study, which was part-funded by an arm of Government, came as a growing number of leading scientists signed a declaration calling for life to be allowed to return to normal for all but the elderly and vulnerable.
By last night more than 9,000 doctors and medical experts had endorsed the ‘Great Barrington Declaration’ that backs herd immunity.
A separate study yesterday suggested that 86 per cent of corona victims do not have any symptoms when they test positive. And there were growing questions over the effectiveness of lockdown-style restrictions as figures showed that new rules have failed to curb coronavirus in almost all the local areas that have been living with them for two months.
Nicola Sturgeon yesterday announced sweeping restrictions, with pubs and restaurants in Glasgow, Edinburgh and the central belt shut for 16 days from tomorrow night. As Boris Johnson agonised over similar measures to contain a surge in cases across northern England:
■ Ministers were urged to water down the 10pm hospitality curfew as Sir Keir Starmer indicated Labour could side with Tory rebels on the issue;
■ Holidaymakers could be forced to selfisolate before they fly home under plans to shorten 14-day quarantine;
■ Shortages of vital diagnostic materials threatened to further derail the target of 500,000 coronavirus tests a day;
■ A leading economic think-tank pleaded with the Chancellor not to raise taxes;
■ The NHS said sufferers of ‘long Covid’ would be offered specialist help at rehabilitation clinics;
■ MPs launched an inquiry into the Government response to the pandemic;
■ Police and local councils will receive £60million to step up enforcement of Covid restrictions such as the curfew;
■ The largest trial of the Oxford vaccine was in danger of being delayed;
■ A study suggested vitamin D could help to protect against coronavirus;
■ A further 14,162 cases were reported yesterday with 70 deaths;
■ Entrepreneur Sir James Dyson demanded more measures from rishi Sunak to boost the economy and get workers back to the office. The rise in corona cases in recent days, in Britain and in other countries, has triggered intense debate over how the pandemic should be handled.
With cases surging in a string of cities in northern England, the Prime Minister is considering a range of measures that could be announced before the end of the week, including the total closure of the hospitality sector in hotspots.
Professor Calum Semple, a member of the Government’s scientific advisory panel on disease outbreaks, yesterday recommended that a short national lockdown should be considered to slow the virus.
Downing Street yesterday rejected the Great Barrington Declaration’s call for a switch of Covid strategy.
The PM’s official spokesman said: ‘We have considered the full range of scientific opinion throughout the course of this pandemic and we will continue to do so.
‘But it is not possible to rely on an unproven assumption that it is possible for people who are at lower risk should they contract the virus to avoid subsequently transmitting it to those who are at a higher risk and who would therefore face a greater chance of ending up in hospital, or worse in an intensive care unit.’
The spokesman acknowledged that lockdown measures were having health impacts but added: ‘It’s also worth stressing that another crucial consideration has been the need to protect the NHS so it can continue to provide critical care and treatment for illnesses such as cancer.’
The idea of imposing further restrictions on the millions who have faced lockdown restrictions for weeks, met with an angry response yesterday.
Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham said ministers were facing ‘a dangerous winter of discontent in the North’. In Burnley, which has been in local lockdown since July 21, the infection rate has increased over 20 times from 21 to 434 per 100,000.
‘Facing a winter of discontent’
WHEN, in March, the Government imposed the most draconian curbs on our freedoms in peacetime, we obeyed diligently.
When it forbade us from seeing family and friends, despite anguished hearts, we complied. And when it ordered us to close thriving businesses, we acquiesced.
Why? Because Boris Johnson insisted the unprecedented crackdown was essential to fight Covid’s spread. The Prime Minister was, he assured us, punctiliously following ‘the science’. But once controls were lifted, the disease unsurprisingly bounced back.
Now, with an uptick in infections, hospital admissions and deaths (albeit a fraction of the number at the peak), ministers have foisted upon us an insidious and bewildering patchwork of prohibitions. Alarmingly, Boris is plunging millions into a tougher regime.
Is this how we are meant to live? Bunnyhopping interminably in and out of economydestroying, life-sapping semi-lockdowns to try to avoid even a single casualty?
No 10 maintains it bases these ruinous measures on ‘the science’. But what if ‘the science’ is dangerously wrong?
Today, there is growing evidence that it is flawed – and the controversial powers are doing infinitely more harm than good.
A withering study by eminent academics at Edinburgh University – commissioned by the Government, no less – has found that lockdowns simply don’t work.
In fact, strict restrictions and school closures may actually increase the death toll by prolonging the pandemic.
The research echoes 9,000 scientists and medics who warn the curbs are doing ‘irreparable damage’ to health in other ways, such as missed cancer screenings.
And if stringent clampdowns work, how come 19 of 20 northern towns subjected to them have seen infections soar?
Moreover, even Downing Street can’t muster proof the 10pm pubs and restaurant curfew is a success. Ironically, it appears to hasten the disease’s spread by forcing large groups on to the streets at closing time.
Meanwhile, Sir James Dyson, the UK’s most successful entrepreneur, says the only way to revive our floundering economy, and avoid a swathe of bankrupt firms and monstrous job losses, is to encourage wealth creation by getting people back to work.
While these concerns are aired increasingly vociferously outside Downing Street, ministers seem to have their fingers planted firmly in their ears. Will they ever listen?
Perhaps they’ll never be persuaded to change their minds. But surely it’s sensible to hear – not sneer at – other opinions. For Britain is dangerously close to sleepwalking into another punishing lockdown.
Mr Johnson clearly frets Nicola Sturgeon, who yesterday launched a fresh crackdown, will accuse him of putting wealth before health. That might be a recruiting sergeant for the SNP – undermining the Union.
But he should ignore her political gameplaying. Lives and livelihoods are already being destroyed. The economy is screeching to a halt. And a pandemic of deprivation – itself a killer – is emerging.
To get us through this nightmare, the PM needs a long-term strategy. Hoping a vaccine miraculously appears is not one.
Boris has always been open-minded. He must take on board other views. It might help him avoid disastrous mistakes.