Too many promises have been broken. The PM must regain trust and seize control of events

FOR a few fleeting days at the beginning of this month, the nation was infused with a strangely unfamiliar emotion. Hope. Hospitalisation and death rates due to coronavirus were under control, the second suffocating lockdown was about to end and the first vaccine had shown sparkling results and was about to come on stream.

Boris Johnson had a new spring in his step and, although the Prime Minister undoubtedly made painful errors in the early months of this pandemic, people were prepared to look beyond them to the greater prize.

Faint it may have been, but a ray of light was finally visible through the Covid gloom. There was a feeling that soon we would be free to get on with the rest of our lives.

Today, that fragile optimism lies shattered like a cheap Christmas bauble, and with it the Government’s credibility. Hope has turned to despair; despair to anger.

Having solemnly pledged that beleaguered families would at least have a brief respite over the festive season to regroup and revitalise, Mr Johnson has reneged.

By introducing a higher, even more brutal tier of punishing restrictions, he has cancelled a family Christmas for 21 million people and severely curtailed it for everyone else.

Mr Johnson’s previous message, ‘ Have yourself a merry little Christmas’, has morphed into another popular song with a very different tone – ‘Lonely this Christmas’.

Carefully and lovingly laid plans for families to get together for the first time in months were dashed at a stroke. Overnight, the season of goodwill evaporated.

And, after yet another screeching U-turn, the question on many lips is: does the Prime Minister have any idea what he’s doing or where he’s going?

Is there a coherent Covid strategy? Or is he all at sea – the captain of a rudderless ship being controlled by the currents rather than steering a steady course?

First mate Matt Hancock hardly inspired confidence when, during a television interview, he casually admitted that lockdown may have to stay in place until the vaccines have been fully rolled out.

At best, that will take three months. Some public health experts say it could be far longer than that.

Has the Health Secretary any notion of the toll that even another three months in suspended animation would take on the mental and economic well-being of this nation?

Unnecessary cancer, stroke and cardiac deaths are soaring as the National Health Service becomes the National Covid Service, and there is a spiralling mental health crisis.

Great swathes of British business are already gasping for breath. Forcing them to close down at their most lucrative time of year will push many of them under for good.

Ballooning unemployment. Towering national debt. Is anyone in Government taking this massive collateral damage properly into account before reflexively ordering yet another lockdown?

With his gift for misjudging the public mood, Mr Hancock even had the nerve to castigate people for flocking to railway stations on Saturday, hoping to beat the new deadline for getting home for Christmas.

What on earth did he expect, after creating this artificial window? Just days ago, the Government assured us that our Christmas plans could go ahead. He should be apologising, not fulminating. And he would do well to remember that he is there to serve the public, not the other way round.

Meanwhile, what of the new Covid variant – catchily named VUI- 202012/ 01, and said to be fuelling the steep rise in infections and necessitating these stricter controls on our behaviour?

The good news is that it appears to be neither more virulent than previously known strains, nor more resistant to vaccines.

The bad news, according to Mr Hancock, is that it is ‘70 per cent’ more infectious and running riot, placing the NHS at risk of being overwhelmed.

But how certain are these alarming claims? And why didn’t he back them up with genuine evidence rather than glib assertion?

As with so much in this crisis, we are being asked to take what he says on trust. But trust has been stretched to breaking point.

Before succumbing to another stultifying sentence of house arrest, we want some detailed justification from people who know what they’re talking about.

Mr Hancock may be a clever man in some respects, but having studied philosophy, politics and economics, he is not a leading scientist.

Professor Carl Heneghan, on the other hand – professor of evidence based medicine at Oxford University – most certainly is. And in Professor Heneghan’s view the 70 per cent claim is at best overblown.

‘You can’t establish a quantifiable number like this in such a short time,’ he said. ‘ There should be more scepticism.’ He also asks a vital unanswered question. Why, if the surge is being driven by the new variant, are areas of the country where it is rare or unknown also seeing sharp rises in case numbers.

Wales, for example, has seen some of the worst infection spikes in the UK, yet the variant is responsible for just a few hundred cases. If there is a plausible explanation for this apparent anomaly, we have yet to hear it.

The most important question of all, of course, is whether putting half the country into Tier 4 misery will have the desired effect. Based on past experience, the answer is almost certainly no.

Previous lockdowns may have slowed the spread, but only temporarily. Hospitality venues have a negligible effect in driving up infection rates, so closing them is pointless and smacks of gesture politics.

The Mail understands that Boris and his ministers face a uniquely difficult dilemma – inviting criticism from one side if they relax the rules and from the other side if they toughen them up.

Rising virus rates must of course be addressed, but crushing our freedoms every time there is a spike in infections is not a strategy, it is never- ending crisis management.

This constant dithering and mind-changing is bad for the country and bad for Mr Johnson. In the last week, the Prime Minister’s indecision has given Labour new impetus and made its leader Keir Starmer appear to be ahead of the curve.

To get back on track, ministers must do two things. The first is to level with the public – publish all the information available on the new variant, justify the 70 per cent claim and explain precisely why Tier 4 restrictions are necessary and how they will work.

The second concerns the vaccination programme – the only sure way of ending this recurring nightmare.

Some 350,000 people have received their first jab of the Pfizer vaccine. By the end of Christmas week, the Government says 200,000 injections could be being given every day.

These numbers are impressive, but they must not be allowed to slip. Too many promises have been broken before. To break this one would be fatal to Mr Johnson’s career.

With the Oxford/ AstraZeneca vaccine likely to come on stream by the new year, delivering the injections will become much simpler. Unlike the Pfizer version, it doesn’t need to be stored at ultra-low temperatures.

So the programme can and must be accelerated using every conceivable means – utilising military personnel and establishments, bringing older medics back out of retirement and training up new paramedics to carry out vaccinations.

Welching on his pledge to allow families their much-needed Christmas get-together was a massive betrayal – especially when based on such dubious and incomplete numbers.

Mr Johnson’s New Year resolution must be to find a way of regaining their trust and carrying them with him on this perilous Covid journey.

Every day, this Tier 4 straitjacket inflicts untold harm on Britain’s health and wealth. It should be used only in extremis, not as a default position.

Instead of meekly buying in to every scientific scare story, Mr Johnson must interrogate each one and come to measured conclusions based on a balance of risk.

That is what political leadership is all about. Seize control of events or, sure as shooting, they will seize control of you.