HALLELUJAH! IT’S A MERRY BREXMAS
As millions more face lockdown woe, dramatic late-night breakthrough puts Boris on the brink of delivering gift we’ve been waiting so long for...
( AND HOPES RISE FOR A JOYFUL NEW YEAR )
BORIS Johnson was in ‘touching distance’ of securing a historic Brexit trade deal last night.
after months of fraught talks and missed deadlines, he was poised to strike a ‘Brexmas accord’ with Brussels. Sources said the Prime minister was in the ‘delicate final stages’ of an agreement that will avoid costly tariffs when the transition period ends next week.
however they expect a backlash from eurosceptic MPS over fishing rights, where mr Johnson ohnson is said to have given ground.
Sources on both sides of the Channel confirmed an outline agreement had been struck following a flurry of calls between the Pm and the european Commission’s Ursula von der leyen.
The Pm’s chief negotiator David Frost, his EU counterpart michel Barnier and a senior aide to mrs von der leyen were last night working through a line-by-line examination of the terms to agree the legal text.
government sources warned both sides needed to be ‘happy with the exact wording’ and a late hiccup was possible. But one senior insider predicted the deal was now ‘highly unlikely to collapse’. another claimed
Mr Johnson’s decision to take personal charge of the negotiations at the weekend had been critical in breaking the deadlock.
‘He knew where his red lines were because he set them – he was completely across the detail,’ the source said. ‘When it was all over, von der Leyen asked “Do we have a deal?” He replied simply “Yes”.’
Last night sources said the only potential hurdle to an agreement was a last-minute protest by French president Emmanuel Macron. EU leaders have to agree the deal unanimously.
The agreement covers vast areas of the UK’s relationship with the EU, including trade, security and travel. One report said the final version could run to 2,000 pages.
Ministers hope the news will boost morale in what looks set to be the toughest of winters. The pound rose sharply yesterday on the back of mounting speculation that agreement was near.
The breakthrough came as Health Secretary Matt Hancock warned that a surge of Covid cases would put much of the country under heavy restrictions, probably for months.
In an emergency statement, he announced that another eight million people would be placed under Tier Four restrictions on Boxing Day. That will put the entire South East and much of East Anglia under virtual lockdown. Mr Hancock also revealed mounting concern about a new ‘super-strain’ of the virus which has reached the UK from South Africa. Government sources said the EU deal would see British fishermen able to land roughly two thirds of fish in UK waters by the middle of the decade. But a senior Tory predicted the agreement would ‘land badly’ with Eurosceptic MPs. It is understood to involve the EU handing back only 25 per cent of its share of quota from UK waters, with the cuts phased in over five and a half years.
MPs are set to be recalled to Parliament to vote the deal through in time for the end of the transition on December 31. The agreement came after days of frantic negotiation. Sources claim it was almost derailed when the EU proposed measures they say would have crippled Britain’s drive to become a world leader in electric cars.
‘We have got it to a place we are happy with,’ a source said. ‘It upholds all the principles we said we would not compromise on. Yes, we have made compromises in some areas, but we have not compromised on the fundamentals of taking back control.’
Another senior Tory said the deal would ensure ‘zero tariff, zero quota access to European markets’ alongside security co-operation. ‘There will be no European Court of Justice messing us around,’ the source said.
However, the Prime Minister is braced for accusations of betrayal from Eurosceptic Tories, some of whom had urged the PM to walk away rather than compromise.
Environment minister Zac Goldsmith predicted that both diehard Remainers and hardcore Eurosceptics would try to pick holes in the deal.
The ardent Brexiteer urged both sides to accept the need for compromise, adding: ‘There is a very large constituency of people who are absolutely longing to trash the deal and will do so irrespective of its merits. A temporary coming together of the two extremes.’
The European Research Group of Tory MPs, which was instrumental in killing off Theresa May’s deal last year, announced it would convene a ‘star chamber’ or lawyers to analyse the agreement as soon as it is published. It will be led by arch-Eurosceptic Sir Bill Cash. In a joint statement, the ERG’s chairman and his deputy, Mark Francois and David Jones, said: ‘Given that the new agreement is highly complex, the star chamber will scrutinise it in detail, to ensure that its provisions genuinely protect the sovereignty of the United Kingdom, after we exit the transition period at the end of this year.’
The statement said the group aimed to publish its analysis of the deal ‘before parliament reconvenes’. With Sir Keir Starmer indicating he would order Labour to vote for a deal, the agreement is almost certain to
‘He was completely across the detail’
get through the Commons when MPs are recalled, probably on December 30.
But a Brexiteer revolt could destabilise Mr Johnson’s leadership at a time when many Tory MPs are already furious over the handling of the pandemic.
One Brexiteer MP warned last night: ‘If Boris has sold us out, he is finished – and I think he knows that.’
Eurosceptic jitters intensified last night after French sources claimed victory for Emmanuel Macron over fishing.
A French official told the Reuters news agency ‘the British made huge concessions’ in the final 48 hours, mostly on fishing. The fishing agreement is an improvement on the
EU’s opening offer to return 15 per cent of quota over a decade. But it is also a long way short of the UK’s demand to take back 60 per cent in three years.
A UK source said Brussels had at one point argued for a 14-year transition, adding: ‘We had to give a bit to get that down but we’ll be catching something like two thirds of all fish in our waters by the end of the transition.’
A No Deal Brexit would have enabled the UK to take back all quota in its waters. But ministers were concerned that crippling tariffs could make it impossible for British trawlermen to sell their catch to traditional markets in the EU.
Business leaders, who have issued increasingly strident warnings about the risk of No Deal, last night gave a cautious welcome to the prospect of a last-gasp agreement.
Adam Marshall, director-general of the British Chambers of Commerce, said: ‘Faced with the prospect of No Deal in just eight days, businesses are hopeful that a Brexit deal is finally in sight.
‘Understandably, business communities will want to digest the detail – and how it will affect movement of goods, people and data across borders.’
Last night the chief spokesman for Mrs Ursula von der Leyen added to the suspense by sharing a photograph of boxes of pizzas, the meal favoured by the negotiating teams.
EVEN if it had been scripted by Charles Dickens, that great chronicler of festive Britain, one might have set aside the book, head shaking in disbelief. Last night, with the seconds ticking down to Christmas Eve, news emerged of what to millions of sensible Britons wearied by the Brexit wars will be a marvellous gift.
More than four years after Britain voted in unprecedented numbers to cast off the EU’s shackles and become a truly sovereign nation, Boris Johnson was on the brink of announcing he had secured a trade deal with the bloc.
It’s a sign of these unquiet times that reports of a resolution to the struggle which has dominated British and European politics since 2016 were greeted more with relief than wild exultation.
On a day when Health Secretary Matt Hancock warned that yet another new Covid variant had descended on us and plunged millions more people into the toughest tier of restrictions, people were hardly in the mood for celebration.
But if we do finally have a deal that honours the fundamentals of Brexit, while at the same time facilitating frictionless trade with our biggest commercial partner, that is a truly historic achievement.
Less than a week ago, negotiations seemed mired in recrimination. The two sides appeared unable to reconcile fundamental differences.
Of course, it was in both sides’ best interests to strike a mutually lucrative pact, with zero tariffs and quotas.
Thanks to the bloc’s mule-headed posturing, however, it looked increasingly likely we would sever ties without a trade agreement.
Like two boats drifting inexorably closer to the lip of a waterfall though, their brinkmanship risked disaster, the precipice of a costly No Deal looming closer.
With both our economies already wrecked by Covid, that would have been catastrophic.
For Mr Johnson, a deal — barring any last-minute glitches — would be nothing short of a triumph. Just think back to July last year when he became Prime Minister.
Brexit negotiations were stuck in a quagmire, with his minority Tory government at the mercy of grandstanding backbenchers.
Despite solemnly agreeing to act in the national interest and implement the extraordinary and unexpected Leave result, an out- of-touch, elitist Parliament — merrily assisted by supercilious, sabotaging then-Speaker John Bercow — cynically attempted to steal it.
In the same pincer movement, the dogmatic federalists of Brussels — whose European project is on financial and political life support — sought to overtly punish us for having the effrontery to leave.
Incredibly, as recently as November last year, the Government was stuck in a Brexit quagmire. Politics had ground to an acrimonious halt.
But within a few short months, Mr Johnson had achieved the seemingly impossible by negotiating a withdrawal agreement and driving it through Parliament.
He followed that up by routing Corbynism to win a landslide general election majority, the infuriated public turning a tidal wave of wrath on the preening political class.
Now it seems he has steered us to sovereign statehood without the severe disruption of No Deal.
By doing so, Mr Johnson has given his critics a bloody nose.
Arch-Remainers relentlessly sneered that it would be impossible for the UK to get a good deal (and, secretly and not-so-secretly, willed the EU to make an example of us). That the ailing eurozone should shun a deal with the world’s fifth largest economy.
Once again, they appear to be on the wrong side of history.
If the PM refused to buckle in the pivotal final days, as the end of the transition period nears on December 31, he will have stayed true to the desires of the British people.
Throughout the entire negotiations, Mr Johnson has tried to behave in a civilised manner to avoid an acrimonious break up. That, unfortunately, was not true of the EU, which has acted unreasonably from the beginning.
No10 was clear all along that it merely sought a deal on the same terms as those offered to other nations, such as Canada and Japan.
But in a bid to retain Britain within its sphere of influence, the protectionist bloc wanted us to mimic its regulations in perpetuity, accepting diktats from Brussels after we depart. What independent country could agree to such patently unrealistic demands?
Leave aside that it would make Britain a rule-taker (with no say on the rules). It would also hobble our competitiveness, just at the moment we sought to become economically more nimble to tap into fruitful new business opportunities and emerging markets.
Brussels also made ludicrous demands for unfettered access to Britain’s rich fishing waters and to make us abide by the judgements of the European courts.
Boris would know that by failing to regain control of our money, borders, seas and laws – as explicitly instructed by voters – he would be signing his own political death warrant. That’s why through perseverance, determination and a refusal to be bullied, he seems to have pulled a rabbit out of the hat. If at five seconds to midnight an amicable, fair agreement has been reached with our Continental neighbours, that will be a victory for level- headed pragmatism.
We’ve yet to see the detail of course. How much ground has been given on the key areas of dispute will naturally be the focus of attention.
Both sides will doubtless say they stood firm and forced the other to blink. The truth will inevitably lie somewhere in between.
Some of the Brexit ultras will be unhappy with anything short of total victory. They were positively looking forward to a No Deal outcome, absolving us of the need for any formal accommodation with Brussels.
Diehard Remainers will say that whatever has been agreed is worse than staying in, deploying the old argument that we would have been better trying to reform the EU from its centre, rather than opting for an uncertain future on our own.
But the vast majority of the population fall somewhere in between these two extremes. They want Brexit done, they want a credible trade deal and they want this country to break the inertia and move on.
Until the deal has been gone through with a fine- tooth comb, questions remain.
The challenges the PM faces — and the consequences — are stark. The European Research Group of Tory ‘spartans’ warned it would convene a ‘Star Chamber’ of experts to pore over the documents line by line.
Nigel Farage accused him of betrayal before the deal was even published.
Economically, of course, our fishing industry is tiny. But of Britain’s maritime tradition, it is totemic.
The prospect of the UK regaining full control of our fishing waters was not only an attractive argument for Brexit, it also proved an election-winner for the Tories.
By contrast, selling out on fish could cost him not only the coastal communities who helped secure those seismic victories.
Moreover, any less than being seen to ‘take back control’ from Brussels would see a sledgehammer taken to the ‘Red Wall’ seats seized from Labour.
But it is essential to remember that negotiations are not all ‘take, take, take’. Compromises must be made on both sides. It would be foolhardy to die in a ditch on minuscule matters, especially when Britain and the EU are in the teeth of a pandemic crisis. For all the jubilation of a deal within touching distance, we should not forget that immense challenges lie ahead.
In particular, the Government must also focus on accelerating the rollout of the Covid vaccine. Not only would a widespread inoculation save lives and prevent the NHS becoming overwhelmed, it would allow Mr Johnson to reopen the country — igniting our economic engine.
But are ministers primed to open popup clinics and makeshift immunisation centres in sports halls? Are retired medics and student nurses being readied to join the push to vaccinate the population?
If as anticipated the Oxford jab is approved next week, we need to sprint out of the blocks, not limp from them.
It would be an act of self-harm to remain for months in the economic deep- freeze after regaining our independence. The nation needs to be freed from this ruinous lockdown as soon as possible, so we can capitalise on new opportunities.
After a dreadful 2020, the country needs and deserves a transformative 2021. Thankfully, when we are ready to fly, we will no longer be hampered by endless Groundhog Day bickering with our closest neighbours. And that truly is a merry Brexmas.