Nearly 40,000 new cases – up 61% in a week

Fears NHS is ‘buckling under the strain’

A reCOrD 39,237 positive tests for coronavirus were reported yesterday – with the mutant strain accounting for around half of them.

Infections have surged by 61 per cent in a week and the number of patients in hospital is on track to overtake the previous April peak as soon as Christmas Day.

Government scientific advisers said the r number could be as high as 1.5 in the east and London, where some intensive care units have reached full capacity.

There are currently 20,917 Covid19 patients in hospitals across the UK, approaching the previous peak of 21,683 on April 12.

Yesterday another 2,004 patients were admitted and 744 died – the highest death toll since April 29.

Deputy chief medical officer Dr Jenny Harries warned: ‘The sharp rise in cases is going to need some stopping.’ The surge is a result of a new variant of the virus, first detected in Kent, which health officials say cannot be controlled with Tier Three measures.

This has led to a ‘ferocious’ exponential growth in cases in London, the South east and South Wales which currently shows no sign of slowing down.

In London, which recorded nearly 10,000 cases yesterday, infections are doubling every week.

Four of the seven nHS england regions currently have more virus hospital patients than at any point during the first wave – the South West, the Midlands, the east and the South east. Health officials expect patient numbers in London, which has the highest infection rates in the country, to soon exceed those of the spring.

Intensive care units at some hospitals, including the royal London in Whitechapel, have reached their maximum capacity.

This means hospitals are instead using ‘surge capacity’, converting beds on other wards into those for critically ill hospital patients.

Yesterday the Government’s scientific advisers issued the latest estimate of the r value – the averwas age number of people infected by someone with the virus. It said r is now at 1.1 to 1.3 in the UK, up from 1.1 to 1.2 a week ago.

In London and the east it is estimated at between 1.2 and 1.5, meaning that every ten people infected will infect between 12 and 15 further people.

experts believe the new variant increases the crucial r number by around 0.5, explaining the surge in cases. This means that unless schools stay closed it is likely to be impossible to keep r below one until more people are vaccinated.

Dr Harries said: ‘At the start of December you can see an extraordinarily rapid rise in cases [in Tier Four areas].’ She warned this pattern of a sharp increase in cases now being followed in areas in the South being moved into Tier Four on Boxing Day, including Suffolk, Cambridge and norfolk.

The data presented at the Downing Street press conference shows the alarming speed at which the new, more dangerous, variant of the virus has accelerated.

Across england, more people are now testing positive for the new variant than the old one. In London, about 2 per cent of people have the new variant, compared to 0.8 per cent of people testing positive for the old variant.

The new variant is not thought to lead to more severe illness, but the higher number of overall infections mean hospital admissions are also soaring.

nHS chiefs have warned this is leaving bosses with no choice but to cancel thousands of non-urgent operations and outpatient appointments, leading to the longest waiting times for decades.

Dr Harries said: ‘It is causing a lot of pressure. Mostly we’re trying to treat Covid patients but every time a bed is occupied by a Covid patient we need to think through the impact in others seeking hospital treatment.’

Dr Simon Walsh, of the British Medical Association, said the nHS is ‘ already buckling under the strain’ and that staff were being put in ‘almost impossible positions’.

Danny Mortimer, of the nHS Confederation, said: ‘By moving more areas into Tier Four status, the Government is sending a message to everyone regarding the renewed ferocity of the coronavirus pandemic.’

‘Staff put in almost impossible positions’