Even experts said there was no link
Do schools significantly raise infection rates among children?
According to notes from a meeting last month of Sage, the group of scientists advising the Government, there was no ‘current direct evidence’ that virus spread within schools played a ‘significant contributory role’ in increasing infection rates among children. Equally, however, there was no evidence that infection rates are not affected by schools. If the new coronavirus strain is more contagious in children, the risk could be increased.
What has happened previously?
Hospital admissions began to rise before schools reopened in England and Scotland in the autumn, according to the same
Sage notes, suggesting classrooms were not responsible. International evidence has suggested ‘no consistent pattern’ between schools reopening and coronavirus cases rising. But in Denmark and the Netherlands cases appear to have accelerated after schools reopened.
What difference would closing schools make to death rates?
Projections suggest closing schools for a month in Tier Four areas could mean 19,000 fewer hospital admissions in England. That works out as 375,000 admissions instead of 394,000, in the period from December 15 to June 30. Total deaths could fall by 5,000, from around 107,000 to 102,000, it is estimated by researchers led by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM).
Would it reduce the R rate?
Experts suggest keeping schools and universities shut would reduce the R rate, the rate at which the virus spreads, by 25 per cent. An R rate below one means outbreaks are shrinking. The latest R rate, published last week, ranged from 1.1 to 1.3, so school closures for a month with the whole country under Tier Four could bring it below one. But the R rate may rise as the new strain spreads.
Does the new strain spread more quickly in children?
There is no evidence the new strain is more able to infect children than previous variants, says Public Health England. Restrictions may have stopped older people mixing as much, making it look as if rates were higher in children and younger adults.
What happens when the schools reopen?
Researchers at the LSHTM warn there could be a ‘bigger rebound’ in cases if schools reopen in February, and that the peak in cases would only be delayed.