Monumental task but one we can do

IT was described as the ‘greatest logistical challenge of our time’.

In five weeks, some 15million people across the UK are to have been offered a Covid vaccine. In 16 weeks that number will rise to 32million.

And by next autumn 53million – every adult in the UK – will be given the opportunity to receive an injection.

That’s the timetable set out in the Covid-19 Vaccine Delivery Plan published by the Government. The task detailed in the 7-page document is monumental. And its success is crucial.

As the last year has shown, Covid-19 is tenacious and pervasive. Lockdown measures are effective at suppressing transmission. But when restrictions are lifted the virus returns.

People are currently dying of Covid19 at the rate of 6,500 a week. The initial phase of the vaccination programme, involving care home residents, over70s, and NHS and care staff, would protect 88 per cent of those who have died so far. Once those groups are vaccinated, that 6,500 death toll should drop to less than 1,000.

When the second phase is complete by the end of April – by which time all over50s and younger vulnerable people will have been vaccinated – 99 per cent of those at risk of death will be protected.

Taking into account that the vaccine does not give 100 per cent protection, deaths can be expected to fall to fewer than 100 a week. But given the scale of the task, how likely is this to succeed? Every winter the NHS vaccinates 15million against flu so it should be ready for the challenge. A key part of the puzzle – identifying those elderly and sick people who should be at the front of the queue – has already been done.

Add to that the network of 50 mass vaccination centres being set up, the 30,000 St John’s ambulance staff already trained, and the logistical expertise of the armed forces, and the ambitious figures seem achievable.

One vital factor that may get in the way is vaccine supply.

The country has 160million proven vaccines on order – and more to come should other trials succeed. Officials are confident that the timetable laid out in last night’s plan is achievable.

If they are right, we might enjoy a great British summer after all.