Lockdown is working as new infections peak

INFECTIONS have peaked in much of England and lockdown has ‘slowed the epidemic right down’, the Chief Medical Officer said last night. London, the South East and the East of England appear to be past the peak of new infections, Chris Whitty added.

He said that ‘ because people are sticking so well to the guidelines’ hospital admissions are set to peak within the next ten days, although daily deaths will continue rising for at least a week.

The latest figures from the Department of Health show weekly cases in the UK have fallen by 14 per cent over the past seven days, the first sustained drop since November.

Professor Whitty said officials had ‘not been sure it was going to be possible’ to bring the new, highly infectious variant under control but the ‘ enormous efforts’ of the public meant the virus is ‘levelling off everywhere’.

He told the Downing Street press conference: ‘We are now slowing this right down and we hope it will start to drop.’

A further 55,761 new cases were recorded yesterday. The seven-day average of new daily cases is now 51,221, down from a peak of 59,660 on January 6. There were another 1,280 deaths reported yesterday, the fourth consecutive day when the daily toll has topped 1,000.

And across the UK there are a record 37,282 patients in hospital, 71 per cent higher than the first wave peak of 21,684.

However, the number of daily hospital admissions has stabilised and is falling slightly in London and the South East.

Boris Johnson said there were ‘tentative, early signs’ that pressure may be slightly easing in the capital’s hospitals, but added: ‘It’s far too early to be remotely confident.’

There is a lag of two to three weeks between new infections, hospital admissions and deaths.

Professor Whitty said the vaccination programme should bring down deaths relatively quickly but it will take longer for hospitalisations to fall as younger patients are being admitted. One hospital admission in four is among those under the age of 55, who are unlikely to be vaccinated for months.

The Zoe Covid symptom study app infection survey suggested yesterday that the R rate – measuring the number of people each infected person will pass the virus on to – is now at 0.9. An R number below one means cases are falling.

It came after separate modelling from Cambridge University’s Medical Research Council Biostatics Unit said R was below one in most of England, and as low as 0.6 in London and the South East.

However, the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) estimated the latest R rate is between 1.2 and 1.3 in the UK, but as low as 0.9 in London.

The virus has now killed more than two million worldwide, according to figures collated by Johns Hopkins University in the US.