Keir’s horror in Hartlepool as red seat could go blue

KEIR Starmer is on course to lose a key Red Wall seat in a by-election next month, according to a poll.

A seven-point lead has opened up between the two main parties for the Hartlepool seat – with the Conservatives polling 49 per cent, pushing Labour to second place on 42 per cent.

The by-election in County Durham was triggered by the resignation of Labour’s Mike Hill last month.

He quit with ‘immediate effect’ amid claims that he had used taxpayers’ money to fight a staff members’ claim of unfair dismissal, sexual assault and harassment. Mr Hill has denied the allegations.

More than 500 people in the constituency were polled by Survation last week and asked who they would vote for in the May 6 by-election and their views of the Labour and Tory leaders.

Sir Keir had a net favourability rating with Labour voters in the seat of +30, while Boris Johnson’s rating stood at +80 with Conservative voters.

It gave Sir Keir an overall score of -14 compared to Mr Johnson’s +19.

A Tory source sought to play down the survey, saying: ‘The only poll that matters is the one on May 6. Given this is polling from a leftie union it looks like Labour trying to underplay their hand to get their

‘Underplaying their hand’

votes out.’ But a Labour source said the seat should turn blue – for the first time since the constituency was created in 1974 – due to the absence of the Brexit Party.

They said: ‘Labour would have lost Hartlepool in 2019 had it not been for the Brexit Party. In the context of the vaccine bounce, the Conservatives should take this seat.’

In the 2019 General Election, the Conservatives demolished the ‘Red Wall’ – Labour’s hitherto impregnable heartlands in the North and Midlands – but Labour kept hold of Hartlepool.

Mr Hill, who was first elected in 2017, secured a majority of 3,595 in 2019.

The Tory vote was probably slashed by Richard Tice, then chairman of the Brexit Party, who secured more than 10,000 votes. The by-election will give the first indication of whether the Tories can cling on to the Red Wall now Brexit has happened.

It will be contested by candidates including Paul Williams for Labour, Jill Mortimer for the Conservatives and Andy Hagon for the Liberal Democrats.

The Lib Dems, Greens and Reform UK all stand at 1 per cent of the vote share, according to the poll.