Sturgeon can’t mask her nerves
She says chance of majority is ‘very, very long shot’ as SNP braces for make-or-break Holyrood results
NICOLA Sturgeon’s chances of winning an SNP majority in the Scottish Parliament were hanging in the balance last night.
The Scottish National Party was closing in on a fourth consecutive election victory – but polling experts questioned whether it had made enough progress to win more than half the seats.
Miss Sturgeon also said the feat was a ‘very, very long shot’.
An SNP majority would be a major blow for Boris Johnson and pile pressure on him to grant a second Scottish independence referendum – which could lead to the break-up of the UK.
Miss Sturgeon yesterday repeated her vow to go ahead with another poll should her party secure the 65 seats required for a majority in Holyrood.
Last night, the SNP had won 39 of the 48 declared constituencies, but most of the key results will come today.
The SNP had taken three additional seats – Ayr and Edinburgh Central from the Scottish Tories and East Lothian from Labour – while the Liberal Democrats managed to hold on to four, the Tories three and Labour two.
Former SNP Westminster leader Angus Robertson took the Edinburgh constituency formerly held by ex-Scottish Tory leader Ruth Davidson, who is taking up a seat in the House of Lords. In a major
‘She might push for a referendum sooner’
blow for the SNP, Labour’s Jackie Baillie held on to Dumbarton, increasing her majority of 109 from the 2016 Scottish election to 1,483.
It was a key target seat for the SNP and failing to gain it makes their path to a majority difficult.
Polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice said: ‘Miss Sturgeon is now looking to be in a weaker position with her party. This means she might want to push for a referendum sooner. Meanwhile, a more emboldened Boris Johnson might feel as if he can decline a request for a fresh independence referendum.
‘Scotland is pretty much divided down the middle on the merits of independence. Boris Johnson, if he approved a referendum, could potentially lose the argument.’
It looked unlikely that Alex Salmond’s newly formed pro-independence Alba party would secure even one seat.
There are 73 constituency seats and 56 regional MSPs. The latter group are election via a list system.
Turnout was sharply up compared with previous Scottish elections. Indications were that it could have increased by about 10 percentage points.
Miss Sturgeon comfortably held her Glasgow Southside seat, albeit with a 1 per cent drop.
Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar came in second, having increased the party’s vote share with a swing of nearly 5 per cent. Mr Sarwar is expected to be elected on the list system.
Miss Sturgeon declared she was ‘extremely confident’ that her party will win the election.
At her vote count yesterday she said her initial focus would be the coronavirus crisis and the recovery from it – and offering a referendum on Scotland’s future ‘when the time is right’.
The Prime Minister told the Daily Telegraph last night: ‘I think a referendum in the current context is irresponsible and reckless. I think that there’s no case now for such a thing ... I don’t think it’s what the times call for at all. My impression was that [the SNP] moved away from the idea of a referendum, and I think very wisely.
‘Because I don’t think this is anything like the time to have more constitutional wrangling, to be talking about ripping our country apart, when actually people want to heal our economy and bounce forward together. That’s what people want.’
A final opinion poll by Ipsos MORI for STV News projected that the SNP could take 68 seats.
Two other polls were published earlier on Wednesday, with one predicting the SNP would drop to 59 seats.
At the last Scottish election, the SNP won 63 seats, the Tories pushed Labour into third on 31, Labour secured 24, the Greens six and the Lib Dems five.