I fear even Boris can’t survive this. What a waste — and what a tragedy
WHAT a waste. A tragedy, even. For Boris Johnson is in many respects an exceptional politician who stands head and shoulders above almost all other members of the Cabinet.
He did deliver Brexit against the opposition of the British Establishment — albeit at the cost of putting a border down the Irish Sea between Great Britain and Northern Ireland — and for that he will be long remembered in the history books, and revered by many people.
But he is also a flawed man. His chief flaw has been his reluctance to tell the truth, which has marked him out even in a profession not celebrated for its veracity. Of course, his untruthfulness was to some degree baked in, since his evasions and falsehoods from adulthood were well known.
However, in office they have become intolerable. Had it not been for Covid, Mr Johnson might have prospered. Yet although he should receive credit for the rapid vaccine roll-out, Partygate exposed a lack of truthfulness that is unfortunately fundamental to his character.
His breaking of the law, and his indulgence of near anarchy in Downing Street, were not a storm in a teacup. The hypocrisy was painful to millions of people — including many Conservative voters — who had willingly submitted to harsh rules which Mr Johnson and colleagues appeared to flout.
Just as serious in many ways has been his apparent absence of a political strategy, the constant chopping and changing, the embarrassing U-turns and his embrace of semi-socialist Statist policies of increased taxes and high public spending.
Granted, he has been unlucky to be engulfed in an economic crisis which is in large part due to the war in Ukraine. This blow, following so soon after the catastrophe of Covid, would have undermined any leader. Mr Johnson has been an unfortunate Prime Minister.
Over Ukraine he has of course led the charge amongst Western leaders in coming to the aid of that unhappy country. This is another achievement that the history books won’t forget.
I write as though he is finished, and I suppose it is conceivable that this is not the case. He has defied so many conventions in the past that one should perhaps not rule out a miraculous, last-minute escape. Boris will not give in easily.
But when the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rishi Sunak, and Health Secretary Sajid Javid desert the sinking ship on the same day, it is very hard indeed to see how the Prime Minister can survive.
How fascinating that it has taken two sons of immigrants to have the guts to wield the knife while other Cabinet ministers, though in some cases privately critical of Mr Johnson, have hung back. That said, it is now expected that others will follow.
The resignations of Mr Sunak and Mr Javid, both expressed in pretty brutal language, come less than two weeks after Oliver Dowden resigned as Chairman of the Conservative Party following the Tories’ defeat in two by-elections.
The departure of three Cabinet ministers, so soon after four out of ten Tory MPs publicly expressed no confidence in him, is surely too big a blow even for this extraordinary politician to survive.
Nor does the endorsement of last night’s resignations by former Brexit Secretary and Johnson ally, Lord Frost, augur well for the Prime Minister. Even friends and erstwhile supporters are turning against him.
The last straw was the apparent falsehood over the errant Tory deputy chief whip, Chris Pincher. No 10 had denied that the PM was aware of specific allegations against Mr Pincher. Yesterday Mr Johnson admitted he had been told but had forgotten. Who will believe him now?
Certainly not those ministers who have been despatched in recent days to defend the Prime Minister on the airwaves, having been given an incorrect version of events by his spin doctors, who had in turn been briefed by Boris.
What will happen now? Whether Mr Johnson goes quickly, or fights a desperate but probably hopeless rear- guard action, there is bound to be a period of political turmoil and economic uncertainty. Prospective replacements will jostle for power in what may be an unedifying scramble.
The widespread view is that there are no formidable likely successors, though Messrs Sunak and Javid have inevitably put themselves at the head of the pack. I would not be so pessimistic.
Leadership contests sometimes throw up previously disregarded though outstanding candidates. The most obvious example was Margaret Thatcher, who was considered by many a risible outsider before the contest to replace Ted Heath as Tory leader in 1975.
In the event, she emerged as the unexpected winner. Admittedly, it took her some years to convince all of her party that she would make a good leader, and she had enough time in opposition to prepare herself for office.
Boris’s successor won’t have that luxury. Whoever the Tories choose should have the opportunity to prove him or herself as Prime Minister until the election that must take place in 2024.
Sir Keir Starmer’s call last night for a snap election reveals his fear that the Conservatives could pick someone whom electors will regard as a breath of fresh air.
If it had not been for Covid he might have prospered
Even friends are turning against him
Despite Boris’s tribulations, Labour is not far ahead in the polls.
The right Tory leader, championing authentic Conservative policies, could make short shift of the charmless and heavy-footed Sir Keir. You bet he wants an early election! Don’t give him one.
We’re not there yet. Maybe — just maybe — Boris will still astonish us. As I write, there are no clues that he is about to throw in the towel. But if he survives he will be a better escapologist than Houdini.
Six weeks ago I expressed my fear in these pages that Boris’s ‘idiocies over Partygate symbolise a wider unsuitability for office that can never be corrected’. That — plus his lack of a coherent political plan — remains my view.
Alas — in so many ways. In different circumstances Boris Johnson might have been a lasting success. He has so many gifts. And he is — whatever his critics say — a decent and a generous man.
But after all that has happened, and despite his achievements, he appears now to be a doomed Prime Minister. Yes, what a waste and a tragedy it has been.