One slip from armageddon, but China has most to risk
The eruption of war between China and Taiwan would be a global catastrophe on a scale far greater than the Ukraine crisis. Yet again Chinese military jets invaded Taiwanese airspace this week, this time following American politician Nancy Pelosi’s provocative visit to the sovereign island off the Communist mainland.
Beijing staged live-fire exercises close to Taiwan, effectively blocking those regions to traffic. Meanwhile, the secretary general of the United Nations, Antonio Guterres warned that the world was ‘just one miscalculation away from nuclear annihilation’.
No one is more aware of the dangers of that miscalculation than the Chinese leadership. President Xi Jinping knows that if he takes a gamble and loses, the repercussions could destroy China’s economy or might even bring down the Communist Party that has ruled since 1949.
We should not doubt the level of Chinese anger at the actions of Mrs Pelosi, speaker of the US house of Representatives and a figure so senior that she is third in line to the Oval Office, after the president and vice president. But neither should we kowtow to their anger.
her high-profile visit is a declaration that the West regards this island north of the Philippines, with its 23.5 million inhabitants, as a sovereign state – the last thing that China wishes to admit.
We also must not underestimate Beijing’s international ambitions. President Xi has stated that he wants his nation to be the world’s greatest superpower by 2049 – though of course this was dressed up in party-speak about a ‘strong, democratic, civilised, harmonious, and modern socialist’ country.
But all that could be derailed if a military assault on Taiwan fails. And a seaborne invasion is an exceptionally risky business.
The sea between the mainland and the island is 100 nautical miles of rough water and unpredictable weather for most of the year. There are only 14 beaches that make feasible landing sites and the topography is much more easy to defend than to attack.
In the past, Taiwan’s defence strategies have been questioned by analysts. It could never match its superpower neighbour for ships, tanks or aircraft. But now it is switching to a ‘porcupine defence’, bristling with drones, high-speed boats and missiles of all sizes. These weapons are harder to take out in a pre-emptive strike.
Taiwan has also taken strides to safeguard its communication systems. It’s possible that the island could hold off an invasion force indefinitely, though at a terrible cost to its own population. Defeat is unthinkable for Beijing. But the economic repercussions could be even more seismic. If China attacks, the West will surely impose onerous sanctions, just as we saw when Russia invaded Ukraine six months ago.
The loss of imported Taiwanese semi- conductors, the basis of all computer devices and mobile phones, would devastate China’s economy on its own. About half the semi-conductors manufactured anywhere in the world – and two-thirds of the highquality ones – come from the island.
Without those components, China’s electronics sector is frozen. And that is the most profitable sector of its exports market.
Taiwan’s trade with China’s businesses amounts to about £165billion. Much of that consists of components which go into China’s own exports. Disrupting the Taiwan trade could thus affect ten times the amount of China’s exports. The net effect of that could be to shrink the entire economy by trillions.
We would see a worldwide recession, on a scale not seen in our lifetimes. But the epicentre would be China. And with a social security network hopelessly ill- equipped to support its 1.4billion people, if the Chinese economy collapses, untold millions would face unemployment, poverty and worse.
Already in the cities, youth unemployment is running at nearly 20 per cent. There is no way of knowing how much worse it is in the rural areas, because those figures are not available. Recent weeks have seen protests and riots. When people are angry in a one-party state, the government takes all the blame. The Communist Party will be held responsible – and this is an existential threat to its survival.
When Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine, it was the act of a desperate man. President Xi is not desperate. he has much better options and a long-term plan.
But China cannot afford to let the Pelosi visit go unchallenged. There will be much sabre-rattling to keep the pressure on Taiwan and deter the Americans from doing anything so flagrantly insulting again – and to ensure that other countries, including Britain, do not think of doing so either.
That’s bullying on a global scale. There are more ways to fight a war than all- out invasion, and the Chinese are experts at it.
Charles Parton OBE is a senior associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, who spent 22 years as a senior diplomat in China, Hong Kong and Taiwan
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