Who paid £70,000 for shock survey that undermines Rishi?

ON Sunday evening, the Cabinet met for a dinner in No10. But while the smoked salmon was delicious, the beef stew hearty and everything was wrapped up by a rich chocolate torte, one item on the menu was more tricky to digest – a devastating YouGov poll published that night predicting a Tory wipeout.

In an upbeat presentation, strategist Isaac Levido, who masterminded Boris Johnson’s 2019 election landslide, insisted there was a way to victory.

But to many, the poll’s timing appeared curious. The nation would learn of the Tory Party’s woes only 24 hours before today’s crucial Commons votes on the Rwanda deal.

I have established that work began on the poll on December 14, shortly after the Government announced the main ‘committee stage’ for the revised Rwanda deal would be held today. The results were released in time to cause maximum impact. So who was behind it? The polling cost £70,000 and was commissioned by a previously unknown group, Conservative Britain Alliance. Whoever its members are, they don’t like Rishi Sunak and they want to do Labour’s job for it by undermining his Rwanda Bill.

At Westminster, there was speculation over who had funded this shadowy group. Tory pollster Lord Hayward said: ‘I’m suspicious of any poll undertaken or sponsored by an organisation that has no apparent footprint on any website. I can’t find anything.’

Yet one Tory group that welcomed the poll was the Conservative Democratic Organisation (CDO) set up by businessman Lord Cruddas in July 2022.

Significantly, CDO chief executive Claire Bullivant said: ‘With Rishi at the helm we face catastrophic defeat. Our members want a new leader who is properly Conservative. Yes, our party will look stupid for five minutes, but who cares? We have to do what we can to stop Starmer getting into No10.’

Can the poll really have been an attempt to replace Rishi with a leader from the Right?

Lord Frost, the former Brexit Secretary who is on the MP candidates list, wrote in yesterday’s Telegraph that he had been responsible for ‘shaping and analysing the [poll] figures’. Yet I am told that Frost, a critic of Sunak, did more than just look at the poll results – he also approached prominent Tory donors for financial support.

Frost, who insists the Tories have to be ‘as tough as it takes on immigration’, told YouGov to direct media inquiries to him. But he did not respond to calls yesterday.

Rishi’s Rwanda deal is facing a threepronged assault: From the Tory Right who feel it is not strong enough, from Tory ‘wets’ who dislike the idea of shipping migrants to Rwanda, and from the Opposition.

The poll and Frost’s call to arms were intended to stiffen the sinews of Tory ‘Spartans’ who want the Government to stop migrants appealing against deportation and keep the European court out of the process.

As if on cue, it emerged at the weekend that Business Secretary Kemi Badenoch went to No10 to call for a ban on migrants’ appeals. She was rebuffed. ‘How did that leak just before the poll came out?’ asked a Sunak loyalist, who said Badenoch had a 27,000 majority and will not lose her seat.

The Tory charge to toughen the Rwanda deal is being led by the European Research Group. Its leader Mark Francois has a 30,000-strong majority, so he is also safe.

On the Tory Left, the likes of ex-Lord Chancellor Sir Robert Buckland are implacably opposed to writing European judges out of the picture. His 6,600 majority will be swept away if the poll is right.

‘He’s a principled lawyer who thinks he’s going to lose, so wants to ensure he’s seen doing the right thing for his legacy. He’s not alone,’ said the Sunak supporter.

Last month, Lord Frost said Tory MPs had to consider whether the current leadership could win. ‘If they don’t, they shouldn’t be resigning themselves to it – they should be doing something about it.’ In other words, he wants a leadership challenge.

He clearly hopes the poll and the Rwanda row will kick that off. But does Britain really want another Tory leader – or would it only deepen the predicted electoral calamity?