3 windows, 43 players, £300m spent: Forest were playing with fire
AFEW rough calculations were all that were needed to raise the alarm at Nottingham Forest. As more and more players were signed, employees started to wonder whether enough attention was being paid to Premier League spending rules.
Yesterday they had their answer. Forest were charged with breaching the Premier League’s financial fair play regulations, with a hearing to come. The outcome of that may determine whether Forest compete in the Premier League or the Championship next season.
Everton were handed a 10-point penalty when they broke those rules and Forest face a nervous wait to learn their own punishment.
Yet few in football are surprised at this verdict. By bringing in 43 players for close to £300million in the last three transfer windows, Forest were always sailing close to the wind.
A key plank of Forest’ s defence will be the departure of homegrown star Brennan Johnson, who joined Tottenham for £47.5m last August — comfortably a club-record sale. Forest could have sold Johnson to Brentford in June for about £30million, which would have put them in a healthier financial state for the 2020- 23 accounting period, but nearly £20m out of pocket overall. For the club’s sustainability, they argue that accepting £47.5m for Johnson in August was better than taking £30m earlier in the summer.
Then there is the elephant in the room: the 115 charges brought against Manchester City last February. Whereas Forest and Everton’s cases have been fasttracked, the champions’ will not be heard until this autumn at the earliest. It is easy to see why these two clubs feel harshly treated.
But as far as the governing body are concerned, all cases are separate.
Though it is difficult to fault their ambition since returning to the top flight, Forest have often approached recruitment chaotically.
Perhaps this judgment will make them more methodical, although with Evangelos Marinakis’ son Miltiadis having a huge role, that is far from certain. ‘He does care passionately about Forest but he is impulsive,’ said one recruitment expert. ‘There is no real process to any of it,’ added an agent.
The sense is that Marinakis Jnr sees Forest as a chance to make a name for himself in the world of football. He may do so — but for all the wrong reasons.
Since promotion, Forest have sacked three members of their recruitment team, changed the chairman and often operated without a full-time chief executive. Some say that lack of stability has left them an easy target for agents seeking homes for their players.
Former boss Steve Cooper had scant control over player trading during a little more than two years in charge. The first he knew that Remo Freuler, Cheikhou Kouyate and Willy Boly — to name three — had been signed was when he was informed of the deals by the club.
Others, like Danilo and Murillo, have been clever signings — but were not part of a careful plan. Strong connections with Brazilian agents like Giuliano Bertolucci helped bring those players to Forest and while those deals have worked to an extent, there are plenty of others that have not.
No well-organised club goes on a trolley dash in the final hours of the transfer window. Of the five signed on deadline day last summer, Andrew Omobamidele has yet to start and loanee Nuno Tav a r e s is arguably fourth-choice left back. Both could move on this month. For a club record £30m, midfielder Ibrahim Sangare needs to come good soon, former England winger Callum HudsonOdoi has flickered and the less said about Divock Origi, the better.
Ross Wilson was appointed chief football officer last April and put together an impressive recruitment and analysis team, headed by Tom Stockwell, who held a senior scouting role at Southampton.
Yet while Wilson was busy with that, Forest were relying again on George Syrianos — even though he had been sacked as head of recruitment in October 2022. Syrianos founded data company Fenida and now has an advisory role with the Forest board, appearing in the directors’ box for home games.
Sacking a bloke in October only to bring him back in another guise the following August does not say a great deal about the overall strategy. Throw in links to agents and it is reasonable to wonder what role Wilson has in recruitment, even though he was ostensibly hired to oversee it.
Cooper’s successor is Nuno Espirito Santo, whose agent is Jorge Mendes. Mendes’ Gestifute company had a remarkable level of influence on recruitment when Nuno was at Wolves from 2017-21. Mendes also has a positive working relationship with the Marinakis family. As they like to say in the movies: ‘You do the math’.
The Premier League have done just that and decided Forest’s sums don’t add up. Now comes the tricky part. Forest’s Premier League status may be decided in boardrooms as much as on the pitch. All they can do is fight — and wait.