Even the Right have rallied round Sunak but his leadership is still under threat
IN an ironic plot twist worthy of a soap opera, Conservative MPs were due to gather last night for a big ‘family photo’ designed to mark 100 years of Tory unity.
No doubt there was plenty of backslapping and false bonhomie as they prepared to celebrate the Conservative Party’s remarkable history as a parliamentary force since the formation of the 1922 Committee.
But behind the fixed smiles, all is far from well. Sir Simon Clarke’s Exocet missile – aimed squarely at Rishi Sunak – is a symptom of a parliamentary party that currently seems incapable of the discipline needed in an election year.
In a brutal assessment, the former Cabinet minister, and close ally of Liz Truss, warned that the Prime Minister ‘does not get what Britain needs’.
‘The unvarnished truth is that Rishi Sunak is leading the Conservatives into an election where we will be massacred,’ he wrote.
Sir Simon was shot down in flames by a well-organised Government pushback and a wider sense among Tory MPs that staging another leadership contest would test public opinion beyond breaking point.
Helped by the fact that No 10 got wind of the attack in advance, senior Tories on the Right of the party were quick out of the traps – in defence of the PM.
Sir Liam Fox warned it was no time for ‘self-indulgence and tribalism’. Dame Priti Patel, no fan of Mr Sunak, said that engaging in ‘facile and divisive self-indulgence’ would only help Labour. ‘It’s time to unite and get on with the job,’ she said.
On Tory MPs’ private WhatsApp groups the air turned blue. Energy minister Andrew Bowie urged critics of the PM to ‘get a f***ing grip’, adding: ‘Can we, for more than five minutes, dispense with the civil war and leadership speculation?’ Even Liz Truss felt the need to distance herself from her political soulmate, with sources suggesting Sir Simon will be dropped from the launch of her new Popular Conservatism group next month.
The strength of the backlash was enough to prevent other critics of the PM going over the top. But as far as the public is concerned, it was another wearying day of Tory infighting.
Sir Keir Starmer gleefully seized on Sir Simon’s remarks at Prime Minister’s Questions in the Commons to taunt Mr Sunak. As Tory MPs rallied behind the PM, the Labour leader shot back: ‘I love this quaint tradition where the more they slag him off behind his back, the louder they cheer him here.’
Yesterday’s one-man suicide mission may have fallen flat, but the threat to Mr Sunak’s leadership has not gone away – and allies of the PM believe he may be facing a co-ordinated plot that could lead to a series of debilitating attacks in the coming weeks and months. Sir Simon’s words accompanied the latest findings of a ‘mega poll’ which Sunak loyalists believe has been
twisted to foment rebellion against him by suggesting his leadership is a lost cause.
The origins of the poll are distinctly murky. It is said to have been commissioned by the ‘Conservative Britain Alliance’ – a previously unheard of group of anonymous donors. YouGov, which conducted the poll, cannot say who its ultimate paymaster is, although No 10 suspect disaffected donors with links to Liz Truss and Boris Johnson. The plotters have money, organisation and a pool of disgruntled MPs. Every bad poll or by-election now brings the risk of another outbreak of infighting.
Sir Simon himself made clear he is not backing down. Despite the criticism he continued with an interview with the BBC, telling them: ‘No one likes the guy who’s shouting iceberg. But I suspect that people will be even less happy if we hit the iceberg. And we are on course to do that.’
In a message to colleagues who told him to pipe down, he responded: ‘Personal insults don’t change the facts.’ And sources on the Right of the party claimed his analysis of Mr Sunak’s failings is shared by a significant number of MPs.
They believe that as many as two dozen MPs, mostly on the Right of the party, have submitted letters of no confidence in the PM – roughly half the 53 names needed to trigger a leadership contest. However, no one knows for sure and last week’s botched rebellion on Rwanda demonstrated once again that tough talk does not necessarily translate into action. So far, only Sir Simon and Boris Johnson loyalist Dame Andrea Jenkyns have publicly called for the PM to go.
A leading rebel said: ‘Simon is right that Rishi is leading us to defeat. Just look at his approval ratings – they are worse than Liz Truss’s and the Left didn’t hesitate to get rid of her.
‘Many of us agree we are stuck in a doom loop under Rishi, but don’t think the Conservative Party has got the guts to remove him. People are divided over whether going over the top is the right thing to do and I wouldn’t expect anyone else in the coming days, but if the PM carries on in the same direction then it is going to come back again because there is a sort of destructive pessimism about our prospects.’
That tension played out at an angry meeting of Rwanda rebels last week. Some 60 MPs had voted to toughen up legislation on Channel migrants. Leaders of the group urged them to push on and defeat the Government in a final Commons vote on the Bill, potentially triggering Mr Sunak’s downfall.
But, after an hour-long row, just 11 followed through on the threat.
Witnesses said the former immigration minister Robert Jenrick, who staked everything on the vote and was one of the 11 ‘new Spartans’ left the meeting early with a ‘face like thunder’ as the revolt crumbled.
And that is the uncomfortable truth for the plotters. Plenty of Tory MPs are alarmed by the party’s standing in the polls but they are also well aware that public anger over the never-ending Tory soap opera has played a large part in putting them there. So far, few believe that screening another episode of the psychodrama will do anything but persuade more of the public to switch off.