Houthis hold the world hostage
By targeting Red Sea trade, terrorists threaten established order
Of the three terror groups starting with the letter H, Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthis, the one least known to the world until recently is the Yemen-based militia.
The Houthis have been on my radar for some years after I was shown images of the group on the streets of Yemen with placards proclaiming ‘Death to the Jews’.
If the world didn’t know much about the Houthis, then they do now.
Arguably the organisation, which is described as a member of Iran’s ‘arc of resistance’ across the Middle East, has become the most strategically important terror group to involve itself in the Gaza conflict.
Hamas’s actions, as ghastly as they have been, are confined to Gaza and the West Bank. Hezbollah is an ever violent presence, threatening much of Israel with thousands of precision-guided rockets, and all but controls Lebanon and southern Syria.
The Houthis are different. The group’s geographical position on the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at the mouth of the Red Sea means they threaten one of the world’s great trade routes through the Suez Canal. More than 15pc of world trade flows from Asia and the Middle East to Europe through this shipping lane.
At the time of the 1973 Yom Kippur war, a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the entrance to the Gulf, created havoc for Western nations (including the US) by interrupting oil exports, sending the world market price sky high.
The consequence for the world was disastrous, leading to a great inflation and worldwide recession, and saw the West clubbing together, as the Group of five most prosperous
countries (now the G7), to resist
the peril. No longer is the West utterly dependent on Middle East oil and gas.
A remarkable aspect of the current Gaza and Red Sea crisis is that it hasn’t sent energy prices sky high as many predicted. In latest trading, Brent crude rose above then fell back below $77 a barrel.
Remarkably, in spite of the increasing intensity of military operations in the region, with US and British forces striking at Iranian-backed targets and the Houthis, energy prices have remained subdued. Global oil supplies large have been unruffled by conflagration.
The biggest difference is American self- sufficiency in oil and gas as a result of the fracking revolution in Texas’s Permian Basin. Indeed, the US has become an enormous exporter
A second coming for terror group
of natural gas directly to Europe.
So much so that Joe Biden recently called a halt to the construction of LNG terminals for export on the grounds of climate change.
The move has been criticised by fossil fuel producers. Shell chief executive Wael Sawan said the decision was ‘not honouring the contracts with their foundation buyers’.
Britain and the US view the Houthi interruptions and attacks on shipping in the Gulf as of vital interest.
freight is being diverted, adding 12 to 18 days to the time it takes for shipping to sail from the Asian ports to Europe.
One of the cardinal principles of UK defence is freedom of the high seas. It is no accident that the International Maritime Organisation sits on London’s South Bank. Since the days of empire, Britain has been regarded as a protector of passage through the seas.
The country may no longer have the firepower to conduct complex military operations on its own but can count on American support in the same cause.
The Houthis have put themselves on the global map with their activities. Since the Yemeni rebel group stepped up its attacks at the end of last year, freight rates have rocketed by 300pc.
The level of disruption is nevertheless much less than in the aftermath of the pandemic when supply chains were in chaos.
Manufacturers and some UK retailers, including Next, Marks & Spencer and Primark, have expressed concerns about future deliveries. But there have been no substantial interruptions thus far.
The Bank of England expressed concern last week that inflation projections ‘are skewed on the upside’ stemming from geo-political factors. This is a second coming for the Houthis, who are armed to the teeth and resisted past efforts to curtail their activities by the autocratic regime in Yemen and their neighbour to the north, Saudi Arabia.
In 2018, the Houthis and Saudi Arabia were in direct conflict, with terrorist rockets hitting and setting on fire vital oilfields.
Using British-made Typhoon fighter-bombers and weaponry, Riyadh had little choice but to fight back with ferocity. The Houthis were damaged but defeat was impossible and a de facto ceasefire negotiated.
The Houthis have gained international stardom in the Arab world, on Tik Tok and Instagram, for their attacks on Western-controlled shipping, forcing goods and oil shipments to divert around the Cape of Good Hope. But by drawing the US, UK and Bahrain into the current conflict in the Middle East, they inadvertently have given Israel diplomatic and military cover as it seeks to root out Hamas.
The Houthis may have made friends on the Arab street. But it is hard to believe that Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states will regard the emergence of the Houthis with any equanimity. It is not just the price of energy and Western consumer goods at stake. The Houthis directly challenge the established order and balance of power in the region.