What’s REALLY happening with Tory bid to get Boris back on the campaign trail...
FORMER Prime Ministers are not generally seen on the campaign trail during general elections – and with good reason. Ex-leaders inevitably come with a lot of baggage in the public mind. They risk diluting the incumbent’s message.
And they can even appear like backseat drivers – just ask William Hague about Margaret Thatcher’s 2001 campaign appearance in which she declared ‘The Mummy returns’ shortly before he went down to a landslide defeat. But this year will be different. Senior Tories expect Lord Cameron to play a ‘significant’ role in the election campaign. Indeed, Rishi Sunak has already adopted his predecessor’s core 2015 message that the coming contest is a question of ‘plan versus no plan’.
And if some Conservative strategists get their way, Boris Johnson could play a role too. Behind the scenes, Tory campaign chief Isaac Levido is quietly trying to rebuild bridges between the Johnson and Sunak camps.
Many Red Wall Tory MPs are desperate for the former PM to help fire up the disaffected voters who backed the Conservatives for the first time in 2019.
Mr Levido is ideally placed for the job, having helped mastermind Mr Johnson’s 2019 win. But it is no easy task.
The relationship between Mr Johnson and Mr Sunak famously soured in office – with the then- chancellor’s resignation helping to trigger his boss’s downfall.
If anything, relations have worsened since. Allies of Mr Johnson believe the current PM has failed to show his predecessor the respect he is due. There is simmering resentment over Mr Sunak’s refusal to wave through his resignation honours list and his unwillingness to intervene to block a Commons investigation into Partygate, which led to Mr Johnson’s ejection from Parliament.
Some senior Tories believe the idea of a campaign return for Mr Johnson is a political ‘dead cat’ that was briefed out yesterday to divert attention from Lee Anderson’s defection.
Mr Sunak appeared awkward recently when asked when he last spoke to Mr Johnson. The answer, it later emerged, was a few mumbled words at the Cenotaph in November.
There are some tentative signs of a thaw. The two men jointly authored a recent statement to mark the second anniversary of Russia’s full- scale invasion of Ukraine. They may not have spoken for months but allies say they have ‘exchanged a couple of texts’.
Yet, despite excitable reports, Mr Johnson’s return is far from a done deal. The big sticking point, it appears, is pride. If Mr Sunak wants his help in saving the Conservative Party at the polls, it is clear he will have to pick up the phone and ask for it himself.
And at the moment, he is unwilling to do that. ‘Rishi is too proud to do it – and he’s worried about being outshone,’ says one senior Tory.
The latter point is an undeniable risk. Lord Cameron was outshone by Mr Johnson on the campaign trail too from time to time. But he could see the benefit of deploying his unique campaigning style and was confident enough in his own position to set aside his ego for the good of the party.
Mr Sunak appears to be more sensitive to the danger of being eclipsed. Mr Levido is currently suggesting a relatively limited role for Mr Johnson.
He would be deployed to launch attacks on Sir Keir Starmer, to put his agenda-grabbing skills on social media to use and to write campaign letters to Red Wall voters urging them to stick with the Conservatives.
The idea would limit the risk to the PM but could be tricky to deliver in practice. As one insider put it: ‘You can’t be a little bit Boris.’
Mr Johnson is willing to help but he wants a proper, defined role. And he wants Mr Sunak to swallow his pride and ask him.
The idea of taking on Sir Keir – or ‘ Captain Crasheroonie Snoozefest’ as he famously dubbed him – is not wholly unappealing. It could also provide an opportunity for Mr Johnson to demonstrate that he can still reach the parts of the electorate that other politicians cannot.
THAT is something which might prove useful if he eventually decides he wants to return to frontline politics. Many Red Wall MPs are desperate for him to return to help to try to save them from electoral oblivion.
Privately, Labour is equally anxious for him to remain off the field of play. An internal Labour analysis found that Mr Johnson had succeeded in persuading two million people who do not normally vote to turn out for the Conservatives in 2019. Without him, their expectation is that most will stay at home.
One shadow cabinet minister confided last week that he ‘still couldn’t believe our luck when the Conservatives got rid of Boris’. ‘He was the great message carrier,’ the source said.
‘Not that he was consistent – but until Partygate he could take any situation and twist it to get his message across in a way that we could just never get to grips with.’
Yet there are many voices around the PM who are urging him to keep Mr Johnson at arm’s length. Some in No 10 even claim the Tories are suffering from ‘long Boris’, arguing that he is the source of all the party’s electoral problems.
Mr Levido has certainly got his work cut to bring the two sides together.
But the prize for the Conservatives is potentially enormous.